Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

Abstract

<p class="first" id="P1">Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (ICD-10 C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993–2007. We projected new PLC cases through to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. Among men, the largest increases in rates are in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%), and among women in the US (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g. in Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030. </p><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="S1">  </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d1383156e181">Conclusion</h5> <p id="P2">Our reporting of a projected increase in PLC incidence to 2030 in 30 countries serves as a baseline for anticipated declines in the longer-term via the control of HBV and HCV infections through vaccination and treatment. However, the prospects that rising levels of obesity and its metabolic complications may lead to an increased increasing risk of PLC that potentially offset these gains, is a concern. </p> </div>

Related collections

Most cited references 26

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Global epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection: new estimates of age-specific antibody to HCV seroprevalence.

Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah, Justina Groeger, Abraham Flaxman … (2013)

In efforts to inform public health decision makers, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 (GBD2010) Study aims to estimate the burden of disease using available parameters. This study was conducted to collect and analyze available prevalence data to be used for estimating the hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden of disease. In this systematic review, antibody to HCV (anti-HCV) seroprevalence data from 232 articles were pooled to estimate age-specific seroprevalence curves in 1990 and 2005, and to produce age-standardized prevalence estimates for each of 21 GBD regions using a model-based meta-analysis. This review finds that globally the prevalence and number of people with anti-HCV has increased from 2.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.1%-2.5%) to 2.8% (95% UI: 2.6%-3.1%) and >122 million to >185 million between 1990 and 2005. Central and East Asia and North Africa/Middle East are estimated to have high prevalence (>3.5%); South and Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Andean, Central, and Southern Latin America, Caribbean, Oceania, Australasia, and Central, Eastern, and Western Europe have moderate prevalence (1.5%-3.5%); whereas Asia Pacific, Tropical Latin America, and North America have low prevalence (<1.5%). The high prevalence of global HCV infection necessitates renewed efforts in primary prevention, including vaccine development, as well as new approaches to secondary and tertiary prevention to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease and to improve survival for those who already have evidence of liver disease. Copyright © 2012 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

0 comments Cited 782 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

The nutrition transition: worldwide obesity dynamics and their determinants.

B Popkin, P Gordon-Larsen (2004)

This paper explores the major changes in diet and physical activity patterns around the world and focuses on shifts in obesity. Review of results focusing on large-scale surveys and nationally representative studies of diet, activity, and obesity among adults and children. Youth and adults from a range of countries around the world. The International Obesity Task Force guidelines for defining overweight and obesity are used for youth and the body mass index > or =25 kg/m(2) and 30 cutoffs are used, respectively, for adults. The nutrition transition patterns are examined from the time period termed the receding famine pattern to one dominated by nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (NR-NCDs). The speed of dietary and activity pattern shifts is great, particularly in the developing world, resulting in major shifts in obesity on a worldwide basis. Data limitations force us to examine data on obesity trends in adults to provide a broader sense of changes in obesity over time, and then to examine the relatively fewer studies on youth. Specifically, this work provides a sense of change both in the United States, Europe, and the lower- and middle-income countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. The paper shows that changes are occurring at great speed and at earlier stages of the economic and social development of each country. The burden of obesity is shifting towards the poor.

0 comments Cited 351 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: found

Is Open Access

Gender Differences in Cancer Susceptibility: An Inadequately Addressed Issue

M. Tevfik Dorak, Ebru Karpuzoglu (2012)

The gender difference in cancer susceptibility is one of the most consistent findings in cancer epidemiology. Hematologic malignancies are generally more common in males and this can be generalized to most other cancers. Similar gender differences in non-malignant diseases including autoimmunity, are attributed to hormonal or behavioral differences. Even in early childhood, however, where these differences would not apply, there are differences in cancer incidence between males and females. In childhood, few cancers are more common in females, but overall, males have higher susceptibility. In Hodgkin lymphoma, the gender ratio reverses toward adolescence. The pattern that autoimmune disorders are more common in females, but cancer and infections in males suggests that the known differences in immunity may be responsible for this dichotomy. Besides immune surveillance, genome surveillance mechanisms also differ in efficiency between males and females. Other obvious differences include hormonal ones and the number of X chromosomes. Some of the differences may even originate from exposures during prenatal development. This review will summarize well-documented examples of gender effect in cancer susceptibility, discuss methodological issues in exploration of gender differences, and present documented or speculated mechanisms. The gender differential in susceptibility can give important clues for the etiology of cancers and should be examined in all genetic and non-genetic association studies.