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Abstract
<p class="first" id="d12583378e51">This paper evaluates four competing psychological
explanations for why the jury in
the O.J. Simpson murder trial reached the verdict they did: explanatory coherence,
Bayesian probability theory, wishful thinking, and emotional coherence. It describes
computational models that provide detailed simulations of juror reasoning for explanatory
coherence, Bayesian networks, and emotional coherence, and argues that the latter
account provides the most plausible explanation of the jury's decision.
</p>