Three studies compared the predictive validity of three proximal antecedents to risk behavior: behavioral intention (BI), behavioral expectation (BE), and behavioral willingness (BW). In Study 1, BW was the only significant predictor of change in substance use in early adolescence (age 13), whereas only BI was significant in middle adolescence (age 16). In Study 2, BW was a better predictor of change in smoking among young adolescents than was BE, but BE became predominant by middle adolescence. By late adolescence, previous behavior surpassed both BE and BW. When only smoking initiation was examined, BW was a better predictor than was BE. In Study 3, BI, BW, and BE independently predicted class skipping. However, BI was a better predictor for students more experienced with the behavior, whereas BW was superior for less experienced students. The findings provide evidence of a developmental shift from more reactive to more reasoned processing, as experience with the behavior increases.
