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      Rate of Change in Kidney Function and the Risk of Death: The Case for Incorporating the Rate of Kidney Function Decline into the CKD Staging System

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          Abstract

          Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased risk of death. A wave of recent studies used longitudinal data to examine the effect of the rate of decline of kidney function on the risk of death. The results from these studies show that there is an independent and graded association between the rate of kidney function decline and the risk of death. There is a need to incorporate the rate of decline in the definition of CKD. This redefinition of CKD will transform a static definition into a dynamic one that more accurately describes the disease state in an individual patient.

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          Most cited references34

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          Clinical epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in chronic renal disease.

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            Relation between renal dysfunction and cardiovascular outcomes after myocardial infarction.

            The presence of coexisting conditions has a substantial effect on the outcome of acute myocardial infarction. Renal failure is associated with one of the highest risks, but the influence of milder degrees of renal impairment is less well defined. As part of the Valsartan in Acute Myocardial Infarction Trial (VALIANT), we identified 14,527 patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by clinical or radiologic signs of heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, or both, and a documented serum creatinine measurement. Patients were randomly assigned to receive captopril, valsartan, or both. The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated by means of the four-component Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, and the patients were grouped according to their estimated GFR. We used a 70-candidate variable model to adjust and compare overall mortality and composite cardiovascular events among four GFR groups. The distribution of estimated GFR was wide and normally shaped, with a mean (+/-SD) value of 70+/-21 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area. The prevalence of coexisting risk factors, prior cardiovascular disease, and a Killip class of more than I was greatest among patients with a reduced estimated GFR (less than 45.0 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), and the use of aspirin, beta-blockers, statins, or coronary-revascularization procedures was lowest in this group. The risk of death or the composite end point of death from cardiovascular causes, reinfarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, or resuscitation after cardiac arrest increased with declining estimated GFRs. Although the rate of renal events increased with declining estimated GFRs, the adverse outcomes were predominantly cardiovascular. Below 81.0 ml per minute per 1.73 m2, each reduction of the estimated GFR by 10 units was associated with a hazard ratio for death and nonfatal cardiovascular outcomes of 1.10 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.12), which was independent of the treatment assignment. Even mild renal disease, as assessed by the estimated GFR, should be considered a major risk factor for cardiovascular complications after a myocardial infarction. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society
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              Chronic kidney disease as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: a pooled analysis of community-based studies.

              Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem. Conflicting evidence exists among community-based studies as to whether CKD is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular outcomes. After subjects with a baseline history of cardiovascular disease were excluded, data from four publicly available, community-based longitudinal studies were pooled: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Heart Study, and Framingham Offspring Study. Serum creatinine levels were indirectly calibrated across studies. CKD was defined by a GFR between 15 and 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). A composite of myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and death was the primary study outcome. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for study, demographic variables, educational status, and other cardiovascular risk factors. The total population included 22,634 subjects; 18.4% of the population was black, and 7.4% had CKD. There were 3262 events. In adjusted analyses, CKD was an independent risk factor for the composite study outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.32), and there was a significant interaction between kidney function and race. Black individuals with CKD had an adjusted HR of 1.76 (95% CI, 1.35-2.31), whereas whites had an adjusted HR of 1.13 (95% CI, 1.02-1.26). CKD is a risk factor for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general population and a more pronounced risk factor in blacks than in whites. It is hypothesized that this effect may be due to more frequent or more severe subclinical vascular disease secondary to hypertension or diabetes in black individuals.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                NEC
                Nephron Clin Pract
                10.1159/issn.1660-2110
                Nephron Clinical Practice
                S. Karger AG
                1660-2110
                2011
                September 2011
                28 July 2011
                : 119
                : 2
                : c179-c186
                Affiliations
                Divisions of aNephrology and bHospitalist Medicine, Saint Louis Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and cSaint Louis Veterans Affairs Clinical Research and Epidemiology Center, Saint Louis, Mo., USA
                Author notes
                *Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, Division of Nephrology, Saint Louis Veterans Affairs Medical Center, 915 North Grand Boulevard, 111B-JC, Saint Louis, MO 63106 (USA), Tel. +1 314 289 6485, E-Mail zalaly@gmail.com
                Article
                324768 Nephron Clin Pract 2011;119:c179–c186
                10.1159/000324768
                21811079
                4fac15a0-81d0-47fc-b474-962223a6b72e
                © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

                Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

                History
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 1, Pages: 8
                Categories
                Minireview

                Cardiovascular Medicine,Nephrology
                Chronic kidney disease,Rate of decline,Mortality,Progression
                Cardiovascular Medicine, Nephrology
                Chronic kidney disease, Rate of decline, Mortality, Progression

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