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      Is Open Access

      COPD classification models and mortality prediction capacity

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          Abstract

          Objective

          Our aim was to assess the impact of comorbidities on existing COPD prognosis scores.

          Patients and methods

          A total of 543 patients with COPD (FEV 1 <80% and FEV 1/FVC <70%) were included between January 2003 and January 2004. Patients were stable for at least 6 weeks before inclusion and were followed for 5 years without any intervention by the research team. Comorbidities and causes of death were established from medical reports or information from primary care medical records. The GOLD system and the body mass index, obstruction, dyspnea and exercise (BODE) index were used for COPD classification. Patients were also classified into four clusters depending on the respiratory disease and comorbidities. Cluster analysis was performed by combining multiple correspondence analyses and automatic classification. Receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for each model, and the DeLong test was used to evaluate differences between AUCs. Improvement in prediction ability was analyzed by the DeLong test, category-free net reclassification improvement and the integrated discrimination index.

          Results

          Among the 543 patients enrolled, 521 (96%) were male, with a mean age of 68 years, mean body mass index 28.3 and mean FEV 1% 55%. A total of 167 patients died during the study follow-up. Comorbidities were prevalent in our cohort, with a mean Charlson index of 2.4. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. On comparing the BODE index, GOLD ABCD, GOLD 2017 and cluster analysis for predicting mortality, cluster system was found to be superior compared with GOLD 2017 (0.654 vs 0.722, P=0.006), without significant differences between other classification models. When cardiovascular comorbidities and chronic renal failure were added to the existing scores, their prognostic capacity was statistically superior ( P<0.001).

          Conclusion

          Comorbidities should be taken into account in COPD management scores due to their prevalence and impact on mortality.

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          Most cited references 16

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          Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. NHLBI/WHO Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Workshop summary.

           ,  Suzanne Hurd,  P Calverley (2001)
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            Validity and reliability of the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire after adaptation to a different language and culture: the Spanish example.

            We describe the adaptation into Spanish of the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), a self-administered questionnaire developed by Jones et al. (1991) covering three domains of health in airways disease patients: symptoms, activity and impacts. For the adaptation, the forward and back-translation method by bilinguals was used, together with professional committee and lay panel. Once tested for feasibility and comprehension, 318 male chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with a wide range of disease severity completed the Spanish version of the SGRQ. The clinical status of the patients was evaluated concurrently with the measurement of health status. Lung function was assessed in the 2 months before or after the questionnaire administration. The Spanish version of the SGRQ was acceptable and easy to understand. Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient was 0.94 for the overall scale and 0.72 for "Symptoms", 0.89 for "Activity", and 0.89 for "Impacts" subscales. Correlation coefficients between the overall score and dyspnoea and % forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) were 0.59 and -0.45, respectively, and these correlations were higher than those observed between the clinical variables and the Nottingham Health Profile, a generic measure of health-related quality of life. Results of the study suggest that the Spanish version of the SGRQ is conceptually equivalent to the original, and similarly reliable and valid. Although further studies should complete the adaptation work, results suggest that the SGRQ may already be used in Spain and in international studies involving Spanish respiratory patients. According to the present approach, it appears to be feasible to adapt a specific questionnaire on health-related quality of life in respiratory disease to another language and culture.
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              Predictors of mortality in patients with emphysema and severe airflow obstruction.

              Limited data exist describing risk factors for mortality in patients having predominantly emphysema. A total of 609 patients with severe emphysema (ages 40-83 yr; 64.2% male) randomized to the medical therapy arm of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial formed the study group. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for all-cause mortality. Risk factors examined included demographics, body mass index, physiologic data, quality of life, dyspnea, oxygen utilization, hemoglobin, smoking history, quantitative emphysema markers on computed tomography, and a modification of a recently described multifunctional index (modified BODE). Overall, high mortality was seen in this cohort (12.7 deaths per 100 person-years; 292 total deaths). In multivariate analyses, increasing age (p=0.001), oxygen utilization (p=0.04), lower total lung capacity % predicted (p=0.05), higher residual volume % predicted (p=0.04), lower maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing workload (p=0.002), greater proportion of emphysema in the lower lung zone versus the upper lung zone (p=0.005), and lower upper-to-lower-lung perfusion ratio (p=0.007), and modified BODE (p=0.02) were predictive of mortality. FEV1 was a significant predictor of mortality in univariate analysis (p=0.005), but not in multivariate analysis (p=0.21). Although patients with advanced emphysema experience significant mortality, subgroups based on age, oxygen utilization, physiologic measures, exercise capacity, and emphysema distribution identify those at increased risk of death.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                International Journal of COPD
                International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
                Dove Medical Press
                1176-9106
                1178-2005
                2019
                07 March 2019
                : 14
                : 605-613
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Respiratory Department, Hospital Galdakao-Usansolo, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain, amaia_ao@ 123456hotmail.com
                [2 ]Department of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Operative Research, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Basque Country, Spain
                [3 ]Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Bizkaia, Spain
                [4 ]Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), University of Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
                [5 ]Research Unit, Hospital Galdakao-Usansolo, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Amaia Aramburu, Servicio de Neumología, Hospital de Galdakao-Usansolo, Barrio Labeaga s/n, 48960 Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain, Tel +34 94 400 7002, Fax +34 94 400 7002, Email amaia_ao@ 123456hotmail.com
                Article
                copd-14-605
                10.2147/COPD.S184695
                6410748
                © 2019 Aramburu et al. This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited

                The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

                Categories
                Original Research

                Respiratory medicine

                comorbidities, copd, mortality, gold, cluster analysis, bode index

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