Diatoms in a future ocean — stirring it up

The commonly observed high diversity of trees in tropical rain forests and corals on tropical reefs is a nonequilibrium state which, if not disturbed further, will progress toward a low-diversity equilibrium community. This may not happen if gradual changes in climate favor different species. If equilibrium is reached, a lesser degree of diversity may be sustained by niche diversification or by a compensatory mortality that favors inferior competitors. However, tropical forests and reefs are subject to severe disturbances often enough that equilibrium may never be attained.

Climate strongly influences the distribution and diversity of animals and plants, but its affect on microbial communities is poorly understood. By using resource competition theory, fundamental physical principles and the fossil record we review how climate selects marine eukaryotic phytoplankton taxa. We suggest that climate determines the equator-to-pole and continent-to-land thermal gradients that provide energy for the wind-driven turbulent mixing in the upper ocean. This mixing, in turn, controls the nutrient fluxes that determine cell size and taxa-level distributions. Understanding this chain of linked processes will allow informed predictions to be made about how phytoplankton communities will change in the future.

Deep chlorophyll maxima (DCMs) are widespread in large parts of the world's oceans. These deep layers of high chlorophyll concentration reflect a compromise of phytoplankton growth exposed to two opposing resource gradients: light supplied from above and nutrients supplied from below. It is often argued that DCMs are stable features. Here we show, however, that reduced vertical mixing can generate oscillations and chaos in phytoplankton biomass and species composition of DCMs. These fluctuations are caused by a difference in the timescales of two processes: (1) rapid export of sinking plankton, withdrawing nutrients from the euphotic zone and (2) a slow upward flux of nutrients fuelling new phytoplankton production. Climate models predict that global warming will reduce vertical mixing in the oceans. Our model indicates that reduced mixing will generate more variability in DCMs, thereby enhancing variability in oceanic primary production and in carbon export into the ocean interior.