Social Networks, Exchange Rate Fluctuation, and Economic Growth: ARDL Approach

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effects of social network propaganda on exchange rate and also exchange rate fluctuations on Iran economic growth. This study uses annual data to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between variables for the period of 1993–2018. Data were collected from the Central Bank of Iran. The autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) method proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) was used. The results of long-run analysis show that a 1% increase in negative propaganda of social media about the exchange rate leads to a 3.8% decline in long-run economic growth. Also, a 1% increase in exchange rate fluctuations results in a 3.5% decrease in economic growth. Research findings also indicate negative short-run impacts of social networks on the excitement of the foreign exchange market and, ultimately, on economic growth.