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      The 2019 report of the MJA LancetCountdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress

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          Is Open Access

          Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

          Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.
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            The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

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              Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

              Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Medical Journal of Australia
                Medical Journal of Australia
                Wiley
                0025-729X
                1326-5377
                November 19 2019
                December 2019
                November 13 2019
                December 2019
                : 211
                : 11
                : 490
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Macquarie University Sydney NSW
                [2 ]University of Sydney Sydney NSW
                [3 ]Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD
                [4 ]University of Adelaide Adelaide SA
                [5 ]Climate Change Research CentreUNSW Sydney NSW
                [6 ]Monash University Melbourne VIC
                [7 ]Menzies Institute for Medical ResearchUniversity of Tasmania Hobart TAS
                [8 ]University of Notre Dame Australia Sydney NSW
                [9 ]University Centre for Rural HealthUniversity of Sydney Lismore NSW
                [10 ]Menzies Centre for Health PolicyUniversity of Sydney Sydney NSW
                [11 ]University of Melbourne Melbourne VIC
                [12 ]Institute of Global HealthUniversity College London London UK
                Article
                10.5694/mja2.50405
                31722443
                837ffa5b-0a74-4861-a9b4-876e6fa5b27a
                © 2019

                http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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