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      Risk Scores for Patients with Chest Pain: Evaluation in the Emergency Department

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          Abstract

          Chest pain is a common reason for presentation to the emergency department (ED). Absolute criteria for Acute Coronary Syndrome without ST elevation (NSTE-ACS) are lacking. An acute coronary syndrome (ACS) needs to be distinguished from a variety of other cardiac and non-cardiac diseases that may cause chest pain.

          For patients with confirmed ACS, several scoring methods can be applied in order to distinguish patients in the coronary care unit who may benefit most from therapies. The PURSUIT, TIMI, GRACE and FRISC risk scores are well validated with this respect. However, none of these risk scores has been used in the identification of an ACS in the emergency setting. The vast majority of patients with chest pain due to causes other than ACS were not evaluated in these trials. An evidence-based systematic stratification and policy for these patients does not currently exist.

          The more recently developed HEART score is specifically designed to stratify all chest pain patients in the ED. The HEART score was validated in a retrospective multicenter study and proved to be a strong predictor of event free survival on one hand and potentially life threatening cardiac events on the other hand. The HEART score facilitates risk stratification of chest pain patients in the ED.

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          Predictors of hospital mortality in the global registry of acute coronary events.

          Christopher Granger, Robert J. Goldberg, Omar Dabbous … (2003)
          Management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) should be guided by an estimate of patient risk. To develop a simple model to assess the risk for in-hospital mortality for the entire spectrum of ACS treated in general clinical practice. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed using 11 389 patients (including 509 in-hospital deaths) with ACS with and without ST-segment elevation enrolled in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) from April 1, 1999, through March 31, 2001. Validation data sets included a subsequent cohort of 3972 patients enrolled in GRACE and 12 142 in the Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries IIb (GUSTO-IIb) trial. The following 8 independent risk factors accounted for 89.9% of the prognostic information: age (odds ratio [OR], 1.7 per 10 years), Killip class (OR, 2.0 per class), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.4 per 20-mm Hg decrease), ST-segment deviation (OR, 2.4), cardiac arrest during presentation (OR, 4.3), serum creatinine level (OR, 1.2 per 1-mg/dL [88.4- micro mol/L] increase), positive initial cardiac enzyme findings (OR, 1.6), and heart rate (OR, 1.3 per 30-beat/min increase). The discrimination ability of the simplified model was excellent with c statistics of 0.83 in the derived database, 0.84 in the confirmation GRACE data set, and 0.79 in the GUSTO-IIb database. Across the entire spectrum of ACS and in general clinical practice, this model provides excellent ability to assess the risk for death and can be used as a simple nomogram to estimate risk in individual patients.
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            Predictors of outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. Results from an international trial of 9461 patients. The PURSUIT Investigators.

            K Pieper, J. W. Deckers, John Lee … (2000)
            Appropriate treatment policies should include an accurate estimate of a patient's baseline risk. Risk modeling to date has been underutilized in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. We analyzed the relation between baseline characteristics and the 30-day incidence of death and the composite of death or myocardial (re)infarction in 9461 patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation enrolled in the PURSUIT trial [Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (eptifibatide) Therapy]. Variables examined included demographics, history, hemodynamic condition, and symptom duration. Risk models were created with multivariable logistic regression and validated by bootstrapping techniques. There was a 3.6% mortality rate and 11.4% infarction rate by 30 days. More than 20 significant predictors for mortality and for the composite end point were identified. The most important baseline determinants of death were age (adjusted chi(2)=95), heart rate (chi(2)=32), systolic blood pressure (chi(2)=20), ST-segment depression (chi(2)=20), signs of heart failure (chi(2)=18), and cardiac enzymes (chi(2)=15). Determinants of mortality were generally also predictive of death or myocardial (re)infarction. Differences were observed, however, in the relative prognostic importance of predictive variables for mortality alone or the composite end point; for example, sex was a more important determinant of the composite end point (chi(2)=21) than of death alone (chi(2)=10). The accuracy of the prediction of the composite end point was less than that of mortality (C-index 0.67 versus 0.81). The occurrence of adverse events after presentation with acute coronary syndromes is affected by multiple factors. These factors should be considered in the clinical decision-making process.
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              TIMI, PURSUIT, and GRACE risk scores: sustained prognostic value and interaction with revascularization in NSTE-ACS.

              Carlos A.S. Aguiar, Jorge Ferreira, R Seabra … (2005)
              Regarding prognosis, patients with a non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are a very heterogeneous population, with varying risks of early and long-term adverse events. Early risk stratification at admission seems to be essential for a tailored therapeutic strategy. We sought to compare the prognostic value of three ACS risk scores (RSs) and their ability to predict benefit from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospitalization. We studied 460 consecutive patients admitted to our coronary care unit with an ACS [age: 63+/-11 years, 21.5% female, 55% with myocardial infarction (MI)]. For each patient, the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable agina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (PURSUIT), and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) RSs were calculated using specific variables collected at admission. Their prognostic value was evaluated by the combined endpoint of death or MI at 1 year. The best cut-off value for each RS, calculated with receiver operating characteristic curves, was used to assess the impact of myocardial revascularization on the combined incidence of death or MI. Death or MI at 1 year was 15.4% (32 deaths/49 MIs). The best predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year was obtained by the GRACE RS (AUC) [area under the curve: 0.715; confidence interval (CI: 0.672-0.756)] but the performance of the PURSUIT RS (AUC: 0.630; CI: 0.584-0.674), and TIMI RS (AUC: 0.585; CI: 0.539-0.631) was also good. We found a statistically significant interaction between the risk stratified by the best cut-off value for the GRACE and PURSUIT RSs and myocardial revascularization, with a better prognosis for the high-risk patients. The high-risk patients represented 36.7, 28.7, and 57.8% of the population, for the GRACE, PURSUIT, and TIMI RSs, respectively. The RSs studied demonstrated a good predictive accuracy for death or MI at 1 year and enabled the identification of high-risk subsets of patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospital stay.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Curr Cardiol Rev
                Journal ID (publisher-id): CCR
                Title: Current Cardiology Reviews
                Publisher: Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.
                ISSN (Print): 1573-403X
                ISSN (Electronic): 1875-6557
                Publication date (Print): February 2011
                Volume: 7
                Issue: 1
                Pages: 2-8
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Unversitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht, The Netherlands
                [2 ]Hofpoort Ziekenhuis Woerden, The Netherlands
                [3 ]St Antonius Ziekenhuis Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
                [4 ]University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
                Author notes
                [* ]Address correspondence to this author at the Unversitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht, The Netherlands; Tel: 0031-887559801; Fax: 0031-302516396; E-mail: backus@ 123456heartscore.nl
                Article
                Publisher ID: CCR-7-2
                DOI: 10.2174/157340311795677662
                PMC ID: 3131711
                PubMed ID: 22294968
                SO-VID: 83ae5e01-acb1-4ff3-9e17-81db2e49ef17
                Copyright © © 2011 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/), which permits unrestrictive use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                Date received : 16 October 2010
                Date revision received : 16 October 2010
                Date accepted : 7 January 2011
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Cardiovascular Medicine
                Keywords: risk scores,emergency department.,chest pain
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Cardiovascular Medicine
                Keywords: risk scores, emergency department., chest pain

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