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      Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19 ☆

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          Abstract

          We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.

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          Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

          Frank Smets, Rafael Wouters (2007)
          Article 0 comments Cited 200 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks

            Christiane Baumeister, James Hamilton (2019)
            Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not. (JEL C32, L71, Q35, Q43)
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              Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models

              Christopher Sims, Tao Zha (1998)
              Article 0 comments Cited 58 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Eur Econ Rev
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Eur Econ Rev
                Title: European Economic Review
                Publisher: Published by Elsevier B.V.
                ISSN (Print): 0014-2921
                ISSN (Electronic): 0014-2921
                Publication date PMC-release: 15 September 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): 15 September 2021
                Electronic Location Identifier: 103901
                Affiliations
                [a ]Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal
                [b ]Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, United States of America
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: S0014-2921(21)00213-0 Publisher ID: 103901
                DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103901
                PMC ID: 8442500
                SO-VID: 8c02401e-0e33-4363-91b6-27534c8eab04
                Copyright © © 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V.
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 29 December 2020
                Date revision received : 8 July 2021
                Date accepted : 31 August 2021
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: supply and demand shocks,covid-19,structural vector autoregressions,sign restrictions
                Data availability:
                Keywords: supply and demand shocks, covid-19, structural vector autoregressions, sign restrictions

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