The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece

With considerably increased coverage of weather information in the news media in recent years in many countries, there is also more demand for data that are applicable and useful for everyday life. Both the perception of the thermal component of weather as well as the appropriate clothing for thermal comfort result from the integral effects of all meteorological parameters relevant for heat exchange between the body and its environment. Regulatory physiological processes can affect the relative importance of meteorological parameters, e.g. wind velocity becomes more important when the body is sweating. In order to take into account all these factors, it is necessary to use a heat-balance model of the human body. The physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is based on the Munich Energy-balance Model for Individuals (MEMI), which models the thermal conditions of the human body in a physiologically relevant way. PET is defined as the air temperature at which, in a typical indoor setting (without wind and solar radiation), the heat budget of the human body is balanced with the same core and skin temperature as under the complex outdoor conditions to be assessed. This way PET enables a layperson to compare the integral effects of complex thermal conditions outside with his or her own experience indoors. On hot summer days, for example, with direct solar irradiation the PET value may be more than 20 K higher than the air temperature, on a windy day in winter up to 15 K lower.

Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.

The physiological equivalent temperature, PET, is a thermal index derived from the human energy balance. It is well suited to the evaluation of the thermal component of different climates. As well as having a detailed physiological basis, PET is preferable to other thermal indexes like the predicted mean vote because of its unit ( degrees C), which makes results more comprehensible to urban or regional planners, for example, who are not so familiar with modern human-biometeorological terminology. PET results can be presented graphically or as bioclimatic maps. Graphs mostly display the temporal behaviour of PET, whereas spatial distribution is specified in bioclimatic maps. In this article, some applications of PET are discussed. They relate to the evaluation of the urban heat island in cities in both temperate climates and warm climates at high altitude. The thermal component of the microclimate in the trunk space of a deciduous forest is also evaluated by PET. As an example of the spatial distribution of PET, a bioclimatic map for Greece in July (Mediterranean climate) is presented.