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Abstract
The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than
today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon
a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than
today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing
past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we
compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical
approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte
Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis
that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight
the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global
warming.