Short-term effects of air pollution on respiratory mortality in Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

Background: Urban air pollutants may affect respiratory mortality. This study was conducted to investigate this effect in Ahvaz, one of the most polluted cities in the world.

Methods: The impact of 7 major air pollutants including O3, PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2 were evaluated on respiratory mortality in different gender and age groups using a quasi-Poisson, second degree polynomial constrained, distributed lag model, with single and cumulative lag structures adjusted by trend, seasonality, temperature, relative humidity, weekdays, and holiday. Data were analyzed using the dlnm package in R x64 3.2.5 software. Significance level was set at less than 0.05.

Results: In adjusted models, for each IQR increase of O3 in the total population, the risk ratio (RR) for respiratory deaths in 0 to 14- day lags was, respectively, 1.009 (95% CI:1.001-1.016) and 1.009 (95% CI:1.002-1.017), and it was 1.021 (95% CI: 1.002-1.040) in cumulative 0 to 14- day lags. For PM10, in the total population and in adjusted models after 0 to 14- day lags and in cumulative lags of 0 to 14 for an IQR increase in the mean concentration of PM10, the RR for respiratory deaths increased significantly and was, respectively, 1.027 (95% CI:1.002-1.051), 1.029 (95% CI:1.006-1.052), and 1.065 (95% CI:1.005-1.128). NO2 showed a significant association with respiratory deaths only in the 18 to 60 year- old age group and in 9- day lags (RR= 1.318, 95% CI:1.002-1.733). Finally, the results showed that for an IQR increase in the mean concentration of CO and SO2, the adjusted RR for respiratory deaths in 9- day lags in the total population was, respectively, RR= 1.058 (95% CI:1.008-1.111) and 1.126 (95% CI:1.034-1.220).

Conclusion: Air pollution in Ahvaz is probably causing increased respiratory mortality.