Population structure and genetic diversity of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in fragmented landscapes at the northern edge of their range

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source-sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Likelihood methods have been developed to partition individuals in a sample into full-sib and half-sib families using genetic marker data without parental information. They invariably make the critical assumption that marker data are free of genotyping errors and mutations and are thus completely reliable in inferring sibships. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is rarely tenable for virtually all kinds of genetic markers in practical use and, if violated, can severely bias sibship estimates as shown by simulations in this article. I propose a new likelihood method with simple and robust models of typing error incorporated into it. Simulations show that the new method can be used to infer full- and half-sibships accurately from marker data with a high error rate and to identify typing errors at each locus in each reconstructed sib family. The new method also improves previous ones by adopting a fresh iterative procedure for updating allele frequencies with reconstructed sibships taken into account, by allowing for the use of parental information, and by using efficient algorithms for calculating the likelihood function and searching for the maximum-likelihood configuration. It is tested extensively on simulated data with a varying number of marker loci, different rates of typing errors, and various sample sizes and family structures and applied to two empirical data sets to demonstrate its usefulness.