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      Ongoing quiescence in the Borborema Plateau Plague focus (Paraiba, Brazil)

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          Abstract

          Abstract Plague is a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, whose cycle is based on a reservoir system composed of mammals and their fleas. Its transmission cycle presents long enzootic periods with undetected cases, sometimes misleading that the cycle is extinct. While surveillance activities in Brazil are being carried out only in some focal areas, the serologic results confirm the persistence of Y. pestis in all monitored areas. We studied the small mammal assembly and Y. pestis presencein the Borborema Plateau Focus within the state of Paraíba, which staged the last Brazilian plague outbreak (1986-1987), through aninventory and Y. pestis detection survey of small mammals in peridomestic and sylvatic areas from two municipalities in the state of Paraíba.The field sampling captured 45 specimens (27 marsupials, 18 rodents), of 10 species. Only two species (one marsupial, one rodent) were captured in both peridomestic and sylvatic ecotopes. The sylvatic ecotope had higher richness and abundance. No evidence of circulation of the pathogen was detected, however, this result does not discard the necessity of continuous epidemiological surveillance due to the risk of rekindling the foci after long dormant periods, especially given the current epidemiological transition occurring on a Global scale.

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          Plague: Past, Present, and Future

          The authors argue that plague should be taken much more seriously by the international health community.
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            Biodiversity Loss Affects Global Disease Ecology

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              The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon.

              Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold, which arises from the difference in scale between the movements that transport infectious fleas between family groups and the vast size of contiguous landscapes colonized by gerbils. Conventional theory predicts that abundance thresholds for the spread of infectious disease arise when transmission between hosts is density dependent such that the basic reproduction number (R(0)) increases with abundance, attaining 1 at the threshold. Percolation thresholds, however, are separate, spatially explicit thresholds that indicate long-range connectivity in a system and do not coincide with R(0) = 1. Abundance thresholds are the theoretical basis for attempts to manage infectious disease by reducing the abundance of susceptibles, including vaccination and the culling of wildlife. This first natural example of a percolation threshold in a disease system invites a re-appraisal of other invasion thresholds, such as those for epidemic viral infections in African lions (Panthera leo), and of other disease systems such as bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles).
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                aabc
                Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências
                An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.
                Academia Brasileira de Ciências (Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil )
                0001-3765
                1678-2690
                September 2018
                : 90
                : 3
                : 3007-3015
                Affiliations
                [2] Recife Pernambuco orgnameUniversidade Federal de Pernambuco orgdiv1Centro de Pesquisa Aggeu Magalhães Brazil
                [1] Areia Paraíba orgnameUniversidade Federal da Paraíba orgdiv1Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Biológicas orgdiv2Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Natureza Brazil
                Article
                S0001-37652018000603007
                10.1590/0001-3765201820170977
                30304231
                9f93e573-4ac9-4d53-ab7f-5fed00a5a79c

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 04 April 2018
                : 05 December 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 50, Pages: 9
                Product

                SciELO Brazil


                quiescence,small mammals,peridomestic environment,Yersinia pestis,surveillance

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