Construction and validation of a novel nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with gastric adenocarcinoma

This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.

There are limited published data on recent cancer incidence and mortality trends worldwide. We used the International Agency for Research on Cancer's CANCERMondial clearinghouse to present age-standardized cancer incidence and death rates for 2003-2007. We also present trends in incidence through 2007 and mortality through 2012 for select countries from five continents. High-income countries (HIC) continue to have the highest incidence rates for all sites, as well as for lung, colorectal, breast, and prostate cancer, although some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) now count among those with the highest rates. Mortality rates from these cancers are declining in many HICs while they are increasing in LMICs. LMICs have the highest rates of stomach, liver, esophageal, and cervical cancer. Although rates remain high in HICs, they are plateauing or decreasing for the most common cancers due to decreases in known risk factors, screening and early detection, and improved treatment (mortality only). In contrast, rates in several LMICs are increasing for these cancers due to increases in smoking, excess body weight, and physical inactivity. LMICs also have a disproportionate burden of infection-related cancers. Applied cancer control measures are needed to reduce rates in HICs and arrest the growing burden in LMICs.

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignancies worldwide and it is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death. GC is a multifactorial disease, where both environmental and genetic factors can have an impact on its occurrence and development. The incidence rate of GC rises progressively with age; the median age at diagnosis is 70 years. However, approximately 10% of gastric carcinomas are detected at the age of 45 or younger. Early-onset gastric cancer is a good model to study genetic alterations related to the carcinogenesis process, as young patients are less exposed to environmental carcinogens. Carcinogenesis is a multistage disease process specified by the progressive development of mutations and epigenetic alterations in the expression of various genes, which are responsible for the occurrence of the disease.