Genomic selection in forest tree breeding

We have not yet reached a point at which routine sequencing of large numbers of whole eukaryotic genomes is feasible, and so it is often necessary to select genomic regions of interest and to enrich these regions before sequencing. There are several enrichment approaches, each with unique advantages and disadvantages. Here we describe our experiences with the leading target-enrichment technologies, the optimizations that we have performed and typical results that can be obtained using each. We also provide detailed protocols for each technology so that end users can find the best compromise between sensitivity, specificity and uniformity for their particular project.

Genome-wide panels of SNPs have recently been used in domestic animal species to map and identify genes for many traits and to select genetically desirable livestock. This has led to the discovery of the causal genes and mutations for several single-gene traits but not for complex traits. However, the genetic merit of animals can still be estimated by genomic selection, which uses genome-wide SNP panels as markers and statistical methods that capture the effects of large numbers of SNPs simultaneously. This approach is expected to double the rate of genetic improvement per year in many livestock systems.

Background The prediction of the genetic disease risk of an individual is a powerful public health tool. While predicting risk has been successful in diseases which follow simple Mendelian inheritance, it has proven challenging in complex diseases for which a large number of loci contribute to the genetic variance. The large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms now available provide new opportunities for predicting genetic risk of complex diseases with high accuracy. Methodology/Principal Findings We have derived simple deterministic formulae to predict the accuracy of predicted genetic risk from population or case control studies using a genome-wide approach and assuming a dichotomous disease phenotype with an underlying continuous liability. We show that the prediction equations are special cases of the more general problem of predicting the accuracy of estimates of genetic values of a continuous phenotype. Our predictive equations are responsive to all parameters that affect accuracy and they are independent of allele frequency and effect distributions. Deterministic prediction errors when tested by simulation were generally small. The common link among the expressions for accuracy is that they are best summarized as the product of the ratio of number of phenotypic records per number of risk loci and the observed heritability. Conclusions/Significance This study advances the understanding of the relative power of case control and population studies of disease. The predictions represent an upper bound of accuracy which may be achievable with improved effect estimation methods. The formulae derived will help researchers determine an appropriate sample size to attain a certain accuracy when predicting genetic risk.