New utility of an old marker: serial alpha-fetoprotein measurement in predicting radiologic response and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing systemic chemotherapy.

There are limitations in using radiologic evaluation to assess the treatment outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The use of serial alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in monitoring response has not been rigorously evaluated. We aimed to study the clinical value of AFP trend in an attempt to validate AFP as a surrogate serologic end point. Participants from a phase III randomized trial of systemic chemotherapy in HCC were studied. Serum AFP was prospectively collected in parallel with clinical and radiologic outcome. AFP response was defined as a decrease in AFP of more than 20% after a minimum of two cycles of chemotherapy. We studied the relationship between AFP response and treatment outcome in terms of radiologic response and overall survival. Of 188 patients, 117 patients with elevated serum AFP (> 20 microg/L) and documented radiologic evaluation had received at least two cycles of chemotherapy. A total of 47 AFP responders were identified. AFP responders had better survival than nonresponders (13.5 v 5.6 months, respectively; P < .0001), and AFP response was strongly associated with radiologic response (P < .0001). Multivariate analysis suggested that AFP response was significantly associated with survival (hazard ratio, 0.413; 95% CI, 0.273 to 0.626; P < .0001). AFP responses were frequently observed in patients with radiologically stable disease (SD) and tended to identify a subgroup of SD patients with better survival. Serial AFP measurement is useful in prognostication and monitoring treatment response in HCC patients undergoing systemic chemotherapy. Incorporation of AFP response into the criteria evaluating treatment outcome should be considered in clinical practice and clinical trials of novel agents in HCC.