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      30-minute postload plasma glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test predict the risk of future type 2 diabetes: the Hisayama Study

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          To investigate the associations of 30 min postload plasma glucose (30 mPG) levels during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the risk of future diabetes in a general Japanese population.

          Research design and methods

          A total of 2957 Japanese community-dwelling residents without diabetes, aged 40–79 years, participated in the examinations in 2007 and 2008 (participation rate, 77.1%). Among them, 2162 subjects who received 75 g OGTT in a fasting state with measurements of plasma glucose level at 0, 30, and 120 min were followed up for 7 years (2007–2014). Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs of each index for the development of type 2 diabetes using continuous variables and quartiles with adjustment for traditional risk factors. The influence of 30 mPG on the predictive ability was estimated with Harrell’s C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the continuous net reclassification index (cNRI).

          Results

          During follow-up, 275 subjects experienced type 2 diabetes. Elevated 30 mPG levels were significantly associated with increased risk of developing diabetes (p<0.01 for trend): the multivariable-adjusted HR was 8.41 (95% CI 4.97 to 14.24) for the highest versus the lowest quartile, and 2.26 (2.04 to 2.52) per 1 SD increase. This association was attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels. Incorporation of 30 mPG into the model including traditional risk factors with fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels for diabetes improved the predictive ability of type 2 diabetes (improvement in Harrell’s C-statistics values: from 0.828 to 0.839, p<0.01; IDI: 0.016, p<0.01; cNRI: 0.103, p=0.37).

          Conclusions

          Elevated 30 mPG levels were associated with increased risk of diabetes, and inclusion of 30 mPG levels significantly improved the predictive ability for future diabetes, suggesting that 30 mPG may be useful for identifying high-risk populations for type 2 diabetes.

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          Most cited references23

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          Understanding diagnostic tests 3: Receiver operating characteristic curves.

          The results of many clinical tests are quantitative and are provided on a continuous scale. To help decide the presence or absence of disease, a cut-off point for 'normal' or 'abnormal' is chosen. The sensitivity and specificity of a test vary according to the level that is chosen as the cut-off point. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a graphical technique for describing and comparing the accuracy of diagnostic tests, is obtained by plotting the sensitivity of a test on the y axis against 1-specificity on the x axis. Two methods commonly used to establish the optimal cut-off point include the point on the ROC curve closest to (0, 1) and the Youden index. The area under the ROC curve provides a measure of the overall performance of a diagnostic test. In this paper, the author explains how the ROC curve can be used to select optimal cut-off points for a test result, to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a test, and to compare the usefulness of tests. The ROC curve is obtained by calculating the sensitivity and specificity of a test at every possible cut-off point, and plotting sensitivity against 1-specificity. The curve may be used to select optimal cut-off values for a test result, to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a test, and to compare the usefulness of different tests.
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            International clinical harmonization of glycated hemoglobin in Japan: From Japan Diabetes Society to National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program values

            In 1999, the Japan Diabetes Society (JDS) launched the previous version of the diagnostic criteria of diabetes mellitus, in which JDS took initiative in adopting glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) as an adjunct to the diagnosis of diabetes. In contrast, in 2009 the International Expert Committee composed of the members of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) manifested the recommendation regarding the use of HbA1c in diagnosing diabetes mellitus as an alternative to glucose measurements based on the updated evidence showing that HbA1c has several advantages as a marker of chronic hyperglycemia 2–4 . The JDS extensively evaluated the usefulness and feasibility of more extended use of HbA1c in the diagnosis of diabetes based on Japanese epidemiological data, and then the ‘Report of the Committee on the Classification and Diagnostic Criteria of Diabetes Mellitus’ was published in the Journal of Diabetes Investigation 5 and Diabetology International 6 . The new diagnostic criterion in Japan came into effect on 1 July 2010. According to the new version of the criteria, HbA1c (JDS) ≥6.1% is now considered to indicate a diabetic type, but the previous diagnosis criteria of high plasma glucose (PG) levels to diagnose diabetes mellitus also need to be confirmed. Those are as follows: (i) FPG ≥126 mg/dL (7.0 mmol/L); (ii) 2‐h PG ≥200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L) during an oral glucose tolerance test; or (iii) casual PG ≥200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L). If both PG criteria and HbA1c in patients have met the diabetic type, those patients are immediately diagnosed to have diabetes mellitus 5,6 . In the report, the HbA1c measurements in Japan are well calibrated with Japanese‐Clinical‐Laboratory‐Use Certified Reference Material (JCCRM). The certified values are determined by a high‐resolution type ion‐exchange high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) (KO 500 method) and certified using the designated comparison method (DCM) of the Japan Society of Clinical Chemistry (JSCC) and the JDS. After incorporating a proportional bias correction to the value anchored to the peptide mapping method of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (IFCC), the DCM actually measures β‐N‐mono‐deoxyfructosyl hemoglobin and has an intercept approximately equal to zero against the peptide mapping method of IFCC in measuring fresh raw human blood samples. Furthermore, standardization of HbA1c in Japan was initiated in 1993, and the serial reference materials from JDS Lot 1 to JDS Lot 4 are well certified using the DCM until now. In the new diagnosis criteria 5,6 , the new cut‐point of HbA1c (JDS) for diagnosis of diabetes mellitus is 6.1%, which is equivalent to the internationally‐used HbA1c (National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program [NGSP]) 6.5%, as HbA1c (NGSP)(%) is reported to be equivalent to 1.019 × HbA1c (JDS)% + 0.3%, which is reasonably estimated by the equation of HbA1c (JDS)% + 0.4%, as the difference between the two equations is within error of HbA1c measurements (2∼3%). However, on 1 October 2011, the Reference Material Institute for Clinical Chemistry Standards (ReCCS, Kanagawa, Japan) was certified as an Asian Secondary Reference Laboratory (ASRL) using the KO 500 method and the reference materials JCCRM411‐2 (JDS Lot 4) after successful completion of NGSP network laboratory certification. Therefore, the HbA1c unit is now traceable to the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) reference method. The comparison was carried out with the Central Primary Reference Laboratory (CPRL) in the University of Missouri School of Medicine. The conversion equation from HbA1c (JDS) to HbA1c (NGSP) units is officially certified as follows: NGSP (%) = 1.02 × JDS (%) + 0.25%; conversely, JDS (%) = 0.980 × NGSP (%) – 0.245%. Based on this equation, in the range of JDS values ≤4.9%, NGSP (%) = JDS (%) + 0.3%; in the range of JDS 5.0∼9.9%, NGSP (%) = JDS (%) + 0.4%; and in the range of JDS 10∼14.9%, NGSP (%) = JDS (%) + 0.5%. These results show that the previous equation of NGSP (%) = JDS (%) + 0.4% is also confirmed in the present equation, considering a 2∼3% error of HbA1c measurements. The council meeting of the JDS finally decided to use HbA1c (NGSP) values in clinical practice from 1 April 2012, although HbA1c (JDS) values will be included until people become familiar with the new expression. Finally, it is also important to emphasize that the new HbA1c (NGSP) values can be directly measured and printed out from 1 April 2012. However, both new diagnostic reference values and target values of glycemic control have been adjusted to those equivalent values of HbA1c (JDS), as shown in the Table 1. Table 1  Differences in glycated hemoglobin values between Japan Diabetes Society and National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program for assessments of diagnosis and treatment of diabetes mellitus (a) Diagnostic reference values of HbA1c (NGSP) and HbA1c (JDS) Diagnostic reference values HbA1c (NGSP) HbA1c (JDS) Standard range (%) 4.6–6.2 4.3–5.8 Diabetes range (%) ≥6.5 ≥6.1 Possible diabetes range (%) 6.0–6.4 5.6–6.0 High risk range for diabetes (%) 5.6–5.9 5.2–5.5 (b) Assessments of the glycemic control using HbA1c Assessment of control state HbA1c (NGSP) HbA1c (JDS) Excellent (%) <6.2 <5.8 Good (%) 6.2–6.8 5.8–6.4 Fair  Inadequate (%) 6.9–7.3 6.5–6.9  Not good (%) 7.4–8.3 7.0–7.9 Poor (%) ≥8.4 ≥8.0 HbA1c, glycated hemoglobin; JDS, Japan Diabetes Society; NGSP, National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program.
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              Impaired glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glycaemia: the current status on definition and intervention

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care
                BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care
                bmjdrc
                bmjdrc
                BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2052-4897
                2020
                15 July 2020
                : 8
                : 1
                : e001156
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health , Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University , Fukuoka, Japan
                [2 ]departmentDepartment of Medicine and Clinical Science , Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University , Fukuoka, Japan
                [3 ]departmentCenter for Cohort Studies , Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University , Fukuoka, Japan
                [4 ]departmentDevelopment & Design Department, Japan Business Division , Suntory Beverage & Food Limited , Kanagawa, Japan
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Toshiharu Ninomiya; nino@ 123456eph.med.kyushu-u.ac.jp
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4405-4399
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1345-9032
                Article
                bmjdrc-2019-001156
                10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-001156
                7368480
                32675171
                b601f685-c098-4445-815c-bdb9805b7051
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 25 December 2019
                : 21 March 2020
                : 18 May 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Junkankitou-Ippan-003 and H30-Shokuhin-[Sitei]-005);
                Funded by: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (JP16H02692),(B) (JP16H05850, JP17H04126, and JP18H02737),and (C) (JP17K09114, JP17K09113, JP17K01853, JP18K07565, JP18K09412, and JP19K07890) and for Early-Career Scientists (JP18K17925 and JP18K17382) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan;
                Funded by: Suntory Beverage & Food Limited (Tokyo, Japan);
                Funded by: the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (JP19dk0207025, JP19ek0210082, JP19ek0210083, JP19km0405202, JP19ek0210080, and JP19fk0108075);
                Categories
                Epidemiology/Health Services Research
                1506
                1867
                Custom metadata
                unlocked

                adult diabetes,oral glucose tolerance test,epidemiology

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