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      Interpretable machine learning for prediction of clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke

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          Abstract

          Background and aims

          Predicting the prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is crucial in a clinical setting for establishing suitable treatment plans. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model that predicts the functional outcome of AIS patients and provides interpretable insights.

          Methods

          We included AIS patients from a multicenter stroke registry in this prognostic study. ML-based methods were utilized to predict 3-month functional outcomes, which were categorized as either favorable [modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2] or unfavorable (mRS ≥ 3). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to identify significant features and interpret their contributions to the predictions of the model.

          Results

          The dataset comprised a derivation set of 3,687 patients and two external validation sets totaling 250 and 110 patients each. Among them, the number of unfavorable outcomes was 1,123 (30.4%) in the derivation set, and 93 (37.2%) and 32 (29.1%) in external sets A and B, respectively. Among the ML models used, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model demonstrated the best performance. It achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.790 (95% CI: 0.775–0.806) on the internal test set and 0.791 (95% CI: 0.733–0.848) and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.798–0.948) on the two external test sets, respectively. The key features for predicting functional outcomes were the initial NIHSS, early neurologic deterioration (END), age, and white blood cell count. The END displayed noticeable interactions with several other features.

          Conclusion

          ML algorithms demonstrated proficient prediction for the 3-month functional outcome in AIS patients. With the aid of the SHAP method, we can attain an in-depth understanding of how critical features contribute to model predictions and how changes in these features influence such predictions.

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          Most cited references33

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          mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations inR

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            Comparing the Areas under Two or More Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves: A Nonparametric Approach

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              Guidelines for the Early Management of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke: 2019 Update to the 2018 Guidelines for the Early Management of Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Guideline for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

              Background and Purpose- The purpose of these guidelines is to provide an up-to-date comprehensive set of recommendations in a single document for clinicians caring for adult patients with acute arterial ischemic stroke. The intended audiences are prehospital care providers, physicians, allied health professionals, and hospital administrators. These guidelines supersede the 2013 Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) Guidelines and are an update of the 2018 AIS Guidelines. Methods- Members of the writing group were appointed by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee, representing various areas of medical expertise. Members were not allowed to participate in discussions or to vote on topics relevant to their relations with industry. An update of the 2013 AIS Guidelines was originally published in January 2018. This guideline was approved by the AHA Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee and the AHA Executive Committee. In April 2018, a revision to these guidelines, deleting some recommendations, was published online by the AHA. The writing group was asked review the original document and revise if appropriate. In June 2018, the writing group submitted a document with minor changes and with inclusion of important newly published randomized controlled trials with >100 participants and clinical outcomes at least 90 days after AIS. The document was sent to 14 peer reviewers. The writing group evaluated the peer reviewers' comments and revised when appropriate. The current final document was approved by all members of the writing group except when relationships with industry precluded members from voting and by the governing bodies of the AHA. These guidelines use the American College of Cardiology/AHA 2015 Class of Recommendations and Level of Evidence and the new AHA guidelines format. Results- These guidelines detail prehospital care, urgent and emergency evaluation and treatment with intravenous and intra-arterial therapies, and in-hospital management, including secondary prevention measures that are appropriately instituted within the first 2 weeks. The guidelines support the overarching concept of stroke systems of care in both the prehospital and hospital settings. Conclusions- These guidelines provide general recommendations based on the currently available evidence to guide clinicians caring for adult patients with acute arterial ischemic stroke. In many instances, however, only limited data exist demonstrating the urgent need for continued research on treatment of acute ischemic stroke.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Neurol
                Front Neurol
                Front. Neurol.
                Frontiers in Neurology
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-2295
                07 September 2023
                2023
                : 14
                : 1234046
                Affiliations
                Department of Neurology, Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine , Busan, Republic of Korea
                Author notes

                Edited by: Ana Catarina Fonseca, University of Lisbon, Portugal

                Reviewed by: Shubham Misra, Yale University, United States; Jiang Li, Geisinger Medical Center, United States

                *Correspondence: Seongho Park risepsh@ 123456gmail.com

                †ORCID: Joonwon Lee orcid.org/0000-0002-0496-2392

                Article
                10.3389/fneur.2023.1234046
                10513028
                37745661
                b62254d4-198d-4974-88c5-aac7037723e3
                Copyright © 2023 Lee, Park and Park.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 03 June 2023
                : 18 August 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 1, Equations: 0, References: 33, Pages: 10, Words: 6293
                Categories
                Neurology
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                Stroke

                Neurology
                machine learning,stroke,cerebral infarction,explainable artificial intelligence,prediction,functional outcome,modified rankin scale

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