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      Mass coral bleaching due to unprecedented marine heatwave in Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (Northwestern Hawaiian Islands)

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          Abstract

          2014 marked the sixth and most widespread mass bleaching event reported in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, home to the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), the world’s second largest marine reserve. This event was associated with an unusual basin-scale warming in the North Pacific Ocean, with an unprecedented peak intensity of around 20°C-weeks of cumulative heat stress at Lisianksi Island. In situ bleaching surveys and satellite data were used to evaluate the relative importance of potential drivers of bleaching patterns in 2014, assess the subsequent morality and its effects on coral communities and 3D complexity, test for signs of regional acclimation, and investigate long-term change in heat stress in PMNM. Surveys conducted at four island/atoll (French Frigate Shoals, Lisianski Island, Pearl and Hermes Atoll, and Midway Atoll) showed that in 2014, percent bleaching varied considerably between islands/atolls and habitats (back reef/fore reef and depth), and was up to 91% in shallow habitats at Lisianski. The percent bleaching during the 2014 event was best explained by a combination of duration of heat stress measured by Coral Reef Watch’s satellite Degree Heating Week, relative community susceptibility (bleaching susceptibility score of each taxon * the taxon’s abundance relative to the total number of colonies), depth and region. Mean coral cover at permanent Lisianski monitoring sites decreased by 68% due to severe losses of Montipora dilatata complex, resulting in rapid reductions in habitat complexity. Spatial distribution of the 2014 bleaching was significantly different from the 2002 and 2004 bleaching events likely due to a combination of differences in heat stress and local acclimatization. Historical satellite data demonstrated heat stress in 2014 was unlike any previous event and that the exposure of corals to the bleaching-level heat stress has increased significantly in the northern PMNM since 1982, highlighting the increasing threat of climate change to reefs.

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          Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution.

          How should ecologists and evolutionary biologists analyze nonnormal data that involve random effects? Nonnormal data such as counts or proportions often defy classical statistical procedures. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide a more flexible approach for analyzing nonnormal data when random effects are present. The explosion of research on GLMMs in the last decade has generated considerable uncertainty for practitioners in ecology and evolution. Despite the availability of accurate techniques for estimating GLMM parameters in simple cases, complex GLMMs are challenging to fit and statistical inference such as hypothesis testing remains difficult. We review the use (and misuse) of GLMMs in ecology and evolution, discuss estimation and inference and summarize 'best-practice' data analysis procedures for scientists facing this challenge.
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            Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

            During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and
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              Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.

              Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Investigation
                Role: Data curationRole: Investigation
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                27 September 2017
                2017
                : 12
                : 9
                : e0185121
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology, Kāne‘ohe, Hawaiʻi, United States of America
                [2 ] Ecosystem Sciences Division, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, Honolulu, Hawaiʻi, United States of America
                [3 ] Coral Reef Watch, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
                [4 ] Global Science & Technology Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America
                [5 ] Marine Science Program University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo, Hilo Hawaiʻi, United States of America
                [6 ] U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Honolulu, Hawaiʻi, United States of America
                [7 ] Coral Reef Watch, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
                [8 ] NOAA Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, Honolulu, Hawaiʻi, United States of America
                Universita degli Studi di Genova, ITALY
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: None of the organizations and commercial affiliations involved in this study have competing interests. Global Science & Technology Inc.’s involvement does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

                Article
                PONE-D-16-37010
                10.1371/journal.pone.0185121
                5617177
                28953909
                bbafa9c4-7764-4b18-bd24-a13399bb5611

                This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

                History
                : 14 September 2016
                : 6 September 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 8, Tables: 1, Pages: 27
                Funding
                Funded by: NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, through the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000139, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;
                Award ID: FP-91768001-0
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: EPSCoR Hawaii
                Award ID: EPS-0903833
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
                Award Recipient :
                This study was supported by NOAA/NOS-HIMB agreement code MOA-2009-039 to provide salary to CSC, the STAR Fellowship Assistance Agreement no. FP-91768001-0 awarded by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide salary to JB. Funding was also provided by the ESPCoR Hawaiʻi (EPS-0903833) Track-I research grant to The University of Hawaii to provide salary to JB and KS, the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program to Coral Reef Watch to CME and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) for CME. This manuscript has not been formally reviewed by the EPA and the EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce. Global Science & Technology Inc. provided support in the form of salaries for GL, but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of this author are articulated in the 'author contributions' section.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Physical Sciences
                Chemistry
                Chemical Reactions
                Bleaching
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Marine Biology
                Coral Reefs
                Earth Sciences
                Marine and Aquatic Sciences
                Marine Biology
                Coral Reefs
                Earth Sciences
                Marine and Aquatic Sciences
                Reefs
                Coral Reefs
                Physical Sciences
                Physics
                Classical Mechanics
                Mechanical Stress
                Thermal Stresses
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Marine Biology
                Corals
                Earth Sciences
                Marine and Aquatic Sciences
                Marine Biology
                Corals
                Earth Sciences
                Geomorphology
                Topography
                Landforms
                Atolls
                Earth Sciences
                Geomorphology
                Topography
                Landforms
                Islands
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Community Ecology
                Community Structure
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Community Ecology
                Community Structure
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

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