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      How should we evaluate sweetened beverage tax policies? A review of worldwide experience

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          Abstract

          Over 45 jurisdictions globally have implemented sweetened beverage taxes. Researchers and policymakers need to assess whether and how these taxes change beverage demand and supply, their intended and unanticipated health, economic and equity impacts. Lessons from such evaluations can maximise the policies’ success and impact on non-communicable disease prevention globally. We discuss key theoretical, design and methodological considerations to help policymakers, funders and researchers commission and conduct rigorous evaluations of these policies and related disease prevention efforts. We encourage involving the perspectives of various stakeholders on what evaluations are needed given the specific context, what data and methods are appropriate, readily available or can be collected within time and budget constraints. A logic model /conceptual system map of anticipated implications across sectors and scales should help identify optimal study design, analytical techniques and measures. These models should be updated when synthesising findings across diverse methods and integrating findings across subpopulations using similar methods.

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11984-2.

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          The need for a complex systems model of evidence for public health

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            Sugar-sweetened beverages, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease risk.

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              In Mexico, Evidence Of Sustained Consumer Response Two Years After Implementing A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax.

              Mexico implemented a 1 peso per liter excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on January 1, 2014, and a previous study found a 6 percent reduction in purchases of taxed beverages in 2014. In this study we estimated changes in beverage purchases for 2014 and 2015. We used store purchase data for 6,645 households from January 2012 to December 2015. Changes in purchases of taxed and untaxed beverages in the study period were estimated using two models, which compared 2014 and 2015 purchases with predicted (counterfactual) purchases based on trends in 2012-13. Purchases of taxed beverages decreased 5.5 percent in 2014 and 9.7 percent in 2015, yielding an average reduction of 7.6 percent over the study period. Households at the lowest socioeconomic level had the largest decreases in purchases of taxed beverages in both years. Purchases of untaxed beverage increased 2.1 percent in the study period. Findings from Mexico may encourage other countries to use fiscal policies to reduce consumption of unhealthy beverages along with other interventions to reduce the burden of chronic disease.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                shuwen@unc.edu
                Journal
                BMC Public Health
                BMC Public Health
                BMC Public Health
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2458
                26 October 2021
                26 October 2021
                2021
                : 21
                : 1941
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.10698.36, ISNI 0000000122483208, Carolina Population Center, , University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, ; CB #8120, 137 East Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.10698.36, ISNI 0000000122483208, Department of Nutrition, , Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, ; CB#7461, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7461 USA
                [3 ]GRID grid.415771.1, ISNI 0000 0004 1773 4764, Center for Health Systems Research, , Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Universidad No 655 Colonia Santa María Ahuacatitlán, ; Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera, CP, 62100 Cuernavaca, Morelos Mexico
                [4 ]GRID grid.5335.0, ISNI 0000000121885934, Centre for Diet and Activity Research, MRC Epidemiology Unit, , University of Cambridge, ; Cambridge, UK
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0582-110X
                Article
                11984
                10.1186/s12889-021-11984-2
                8546197
                34702248
                c82b8b90-4440-45e5-bd01-50bf30a1c032
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                History
                : 18 February 2021
                : 12 October 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002, National Institutes of Health;
                Award ID: DK098072, DK056350, P2C HD050924
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009827, Laura and John Arnold Foundation;
                Funded by: Bloomberg Philanthropies
                Funded by: Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica (MX)
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología;
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation;
                Funded by: National Institute for Health Research
                Award ID: 16/130/01
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Medical Research Council (UK)
                Award ID: MC/UU/12015/6
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: National Institute for Health Research (UK)
                Award ID: ES/G007462/1 and MR/K023187/1
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440, Wellcome Trust;
                Award ID: 087636/Z/08/Z
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research in Practice
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Public health
                sugar-sweetened beverage,tax,evaluation,policy,logic models
                Public health
                sugar-sweetened beverage, tax, evaluation, policy, logic models

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