Predicting survival of Iranian COVID-19 patients infected by various variants including omicron from CT Scan images and clinical data using deep neural networks

Abstract

Purpose: The rapid spread of the COVID-19 omicron variant virus has resulted in an overload of hospitals around the globe. As a result, many patients are deprived of hospital facilities, increasing mortality rates. Therefore, mortality rates can be reduced by efficiently assigning facilities to higher-risk patients. Therefore, it is crucial to estimate patients' survival probability based on their conditions at the time of admission so that the minimum required facilities can be provided, allowing more opportunities to be available for those who need them. Although radiologic findings in chest computerized tomography scans show various patterns, considering the individual risk factors and other underlying diseases, it is difficult to predict patient prognosis through routine clinical or statistical analysis.

Method: In this study, a deep neural network model is proposed for predicting survival based on simple clinical features, blood tests, axial computerized tomography scan images of lungs, and the patients' planned treatment. The model's architecture combines a Convolutional Neural Network and a Long Short Term Memory network. The model was trained using 390 survivors and 108 deceased patients from the Rasoul Akram Hospital and evaluated 109 surviving and 36 deceased patients infected by the omicron variant.

Results: The proposed model reached an accuracy of 87.5% on the test data, indicating survival prediction possibility. The accuracy was significantly higher than the accuracy achieved by classical machine learning methods without considering computerized tomography scan images (p-value <= 4E-5). The images were also replaced with hand-crafted features related to the ratio of infected lung lobes used in classical machine-learning models. The highest-performing model reached an accuracy of 84.5%, which was considerably higher than the models trained on mere clinical information (p-value <= 0.006). However, the performance was still significantly less than the deep model (p-value <= 0.016).

Conclusion: The proposed deep model achieved a higher accuracy than classical machine learning methods trained on features other than computerized tomography scan images. This proves the images contain extra information. Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence methods with multimodal inputs can be more reliable and accurate than computerized tomography severity scores.

Highlights

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  A DNN model was proposed for predicting survival based on clinical features, axial CT scan images of lungs and the patients' planned treatment.

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  The proposed model achieves an accuracy of 87.3% on the test data, indicating survival prediction possibility.

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  The results suggest the proposed DNN model extracts and utilizes information not captured by classical machine learning methods.