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      Predicting and preventing hospital readmission for exacerbations of COPD

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      1 , 2 , 1 , 2
      ERJ Open Research
      European Respiratory Society

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          Abstract

          More than a third of patients hospitalised for acute exacerbation of COPD are readmitted to hospital within 90 days. Healthcare professionals and service providers are expected to collaboratively drive efforts to improve hospital readmission rates, which can be challenging due to the lack of clear consensus and guidelines on how best to predict and prevent readmissions. This review identifies these risk factors, highlighting the contribution of multimorbidity, frailty and poor socioeconomic status. Predictive models of readmission that address the multifactorial nature of readmissions and heterogeneity of the disease are reviewed, recognising that in an era of precision medicine, in-depth understanding of the intricate biological mechanisms that heighten the risk of COPD exacerbation and re-exacerbation is needed to derive modifiable biomarkers that can stratify accurately the highest risk groups for targeted treatment. We evaluate conventional and emerging strategies to reduce these potentially preventable readmissions. Here, early recognition of exacerbation symptoms and the delivery of prompt treatment can reduce risk of hospital admissions, while patient education can improve treatment adherence as a key component of self-management strategies. Care bundles are recommended to ensure high-quality care is provided consistently, but evidence for their benefit is limited to date. The search continues for interventions which are effective, sustainable and applicable to a diverse population of patients with COPD exacerbations. Further research into mechanisms that drive exacerbation and affect recovery is crucial to improve our understanding of this complex, highly prevalent disease and to advance the development of more effective treatments.

          Abstract

          The high prevalence of COPD hospital readmissions remains a clinical challenge worldwide. In an era of precision medicine, improved strategies including personalised interventions are required to predict and reduce these potentially preventable admissions. http://bit.ly/2w6pV2I

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          Most cited references92

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          Susceptibility to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

          Although we know that exacerbations are key events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), our understanding of their frequency, determinants, and effects is incomplete. In a large observational cohort, we tested the hypothesis that there is a frequent-exacerbation phenotype of COPD that is independent of disease severity. We analyzed the frequency and associations of exacerbation in 2138 patients enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. Exacerbations were defined as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids (or both) or that led to hospitalization (severe exacerbations). Exacerbation frequency was observed over a period of 3 years. Exacerbations became more frequent (and more severe) as the severity of COPD increased; exacerbation rates in the first year of follow-up were 0.85 per person for patients with stage 2 COPD (with stage defined in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages), 1.34 for patients with stage 3, and 2.00 for patients with stage 4. Overall, 22% of patients with stage 2 disease, 33% with stage 3, and 47% with stage 4 had frequent exacerbations (two or more in the first year of follow-up). The single best predictor of exacerbations, across all GOLD stages, was a history of exacerbations. The frequent-exacerbation phenotype appeared to be relatively stable over a period of 3 years and could be predicted on the basis of the patient's recall of previous treated events. In addition to its association with more severe disease and prior exacerbations, the phenotype was independently associated with a history of gastroesophageal reflux or heartburn, poorer quality of life, and elevated white-cell count. Although exacerbations become more frequent and more severe as COPD progresses, the rate at which they occur appears to reflect an independent susceptibility phenotype. This has implications for the targeting of exacerbation-prevention strategies across the spectrum of disease severity. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00292552.)
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            Derivation and validation of an index to predict early death or unplanned readmission after discharge from hospital to the community.

            Readmissions to hospital are common, costly and often preventable. An easy-to-use index to quantify the risk of readmission or death after discharge from hospital would help clinicians identify patients who might benefit from more intensive post-discharge care. We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community. In a prospective cohort study, 48 patient-level and admission-level variables were collected for 4812 medical and surgical patients who were discharged to the community from 11 hospitals in Ontario. We used a split-sample design to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or nonelective readmission within 30 days after discharge. This index was externally validated using administrative data in a random selection of 1,000,000 Ontarians discharged from hospital between 2004 and 2008. Of the 4812 participating patients, 385 (8.0%) died or were readmitted on an unplanned basis within 30 days after discharge. Variables independently associated with this outcome (from which we derived the mnemonic "LACE") included length of stay ("L"); acuity of the admission ("A"); comorbidity of the patient (measured with the Charlson comorbidity index score) ("C"); and emergency department use (measured as the number of visits in the six months before admission) ("E"). Scores using the LACE index ranged from 0 (2.0% expected risk of death or urgent readmission within 30 days) to 19 (43.7% expected risk). The LACE index was discriminative (C statistic 0.684) and very accurate (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 14.1, p=0.59) at predicting outcome risk. The LACE index can be used to quantify risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital. This index can be used with both primary and administrative data. Further research is required to determine whether such quantification changes patient care or outcomes.
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              Effect of Home Noninvasive Ventilation With Oxygen Therapy vs Oxygen Therapy Alone on Hospital Readmission or Death After an Acute COPD Exacerbation : A Randomized Clinical Trial

              Outcomes after exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requiring acute noninvasive ventilation (NIV) are poor and there are few treatments to prevent hospital readmission and death.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                ERJ Open Res
                ERJ Open Res
                ERJOR
                erjor
                ERJ Open Research
                European Respiratory Society
                2312-0541
                April 2020
                11 May 2020
                : 6
                : 2
                : 00325-2019
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Southampton NIHR Respiratory Biomedical Research Unit, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK
                [2 ]Clinical and Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK
                Author notes
                Kong Chia Wei, Southampton NIHR Respiratory Biomedical Research Unit, University Hospital Southampton, Tremona Road, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK. E-mail: c.w.kong@ 123456soton.ac.uk
                Article
                00325-2019
                10.1183/23120541.00325-2019
                7211949
                32420313
                d93be7b4-1791-4e47-b1d8-b83b8bdff24b
                Copyright ©ERS 2020

                This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Licence 4.0.

                History
                : 21 November 2019
                : 6 February 2020
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