Philippines–Taiwan Oscillations and its connection to tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific Ocean

Abstract

An atmospheric component of the Philippine–Taiwan Oscillations (PTOa) is used to examine its potential connection with tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the western North Pacific in the period of 1979–2014. During positive PTOa years, more TCs are observed in the tropical western Pacific south of 18 °N where cyclonic wind anomaly appears. On the other hand, anti-cyclonic wind anomaly appears in the subtropics north of 18 °N and is associated with less TC formation there. The opposite wind vorticities in tropics/subtropics and associated variability in TC frequency reverse in negative PTOa phase. Besides, the negative contribution of ocean heat content suggests the relative importance of wind vorticity according to the oceanic cyclone genesis potential index. The PTOa provides a more direct explanation of the TC activity compared to other remotely linked phenomena at least for the past 36 years (1979–2014). Therefore, PTOa can potentially serve as a promising index for diagnosing or forecasting TC activity in the western North Pacific Ocean.