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      Household Hurricane Evacuation During a Dual-Threat Event: Hurricane Laura and COVID-19

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          Abstract

          This study explores household-level evacuation decision-making in response to Hurricane Laura, in a context where hurricane risk reduction measures contradicted COVID-19 risk reduction measures. Data were collected using a mail-based survey approach from households along the coast of Texas and Louisiana to explore drivers of and barriers to evacuation, including COVID-19 measures such as negative affect, risk perceptions, protective actions, and exposure. Testing for direct and indirect effects among the drivers of and barriers to evacuation, we find that many of our COVID-19 measures did not have a direct effect on evacuation but did have indirect effects through other factors. We also found evidence of both direct and indirect relationships with regards to more conventional drivers of evacuation found in the literature. We close with a discussion of the limitations and implications of this study.

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          Equivalence of the mediation, confounding and suppression effect.

          This paper describes the statistical similarities among mediation, confounding, and suppression. Each is quantified by measuring the change in the relationship between an independent and a dependent variable after adding a third variable to the analysis. Mediation and confounding are identical statistically and can be distinguished only on conceptual grounds. Methods to determine the confidence intervals for confounding and suppression effects are proposed based on methods developed for mediated effects. Although the statistical estimation of effects and standard errors is the same, there are important conceptual differences among the three types of effects.
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            The protective action decision model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence.

            The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is a multistage model that is based on findings from research on people's responses to environmental hazards and disasters. The PADM integrates the processing of information derived from social and environmental cues with messages that social sources transmit through communication channels to those at risk. The PADM identifies three critical predecision processes (reception, attention, and comprehension of warnings or exposure, attention, and interpretation of environmental/social cues)--that precede all further processing. The revised model identifies three core perceptions--threat perceptions, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions--that form the basis for decisions about how to respond to an imminent or long-term threat. The outcome of the protective action decision-making process, together with situational facilitators and impediments, produces a behavioral response. In addition to describing the revised model and the research on which it is based, this article describes three applications (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and identifies some of the research needed to address unresolved issues. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
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              Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Transp Res D Transp Environ
                Transp Res D Transp Environ
                Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment
                Elsevier Ltd.
                1361-9209
                1879-2340
                19 June 2023
                19 June 2023
                : 103820
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security University at Albany
                [b ]Outcome Engenuity, LLC
                [c ]Department of Emergency Management and Disaster Science University of North Texas
                [d ]Fire and Emergency Management Administration Program, Oklahoma State University
                [e ]Department of Emergency Health Services, University of Maryland Baltimore County
                Article
                S1361-9209(23)00217-1 103820
                10.1016/j.trd.2023.103820
                10277861
                dbb9f306-9721-4838-b809-2b5821f6dbb8
                © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 22 August 2022
                : 13 April 2023
                : 10 June 2023
                Categories
                Article

                evacuation,covid-19,hurricane laura,protective action decision model,path analysis

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