This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in
the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators,
especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment,
were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which
the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic
uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment
in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as
declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical
and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually,
these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points)
and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of
childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels.
Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted
during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great
Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes
in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn
vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are
usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or
even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence
pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries,
the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often
marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.