Progress towards the 2020 fast track HIV/AIDS reduction targets across ages in Ethiopia as compared to neighboring countries using global burden of diseases 2017 data

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Abstract

Background

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3, targets to eliminate HIV from being a public health threat by 2030. For better tracking of this target interim Fast Track milestones for 2020 and composite complementary measures have been indicated. This study measured the Fast Track progress in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia across ages compared to neighboring countries.

Methods

The National Data Management Center for health’s research team at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute has analyzed the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 secondary data for the year 2010 to 2017 for Ethiopia and its neighbors. GBD 2017 data sources were census, demographic and a health survey, prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, antiretroviral treatment programs, sentinel surveillance, and UNAIDS reports. Age-standardized and age-specific HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), incidence:mortality ratio and incidence:prevalence ratio were calculated with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Ethiopia and neighboring countries recorded slow progress in reducing new HIV infection since 2010. Only Uganda would achieve the 75% target by 2020. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda already achieved the 75% mortality reduction target set for 2020. The incidence: prevalence ratio for Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda were < 0.03, indicating the countries were on track to end HIV by 2030. Ethiopia had an incidence: mortality ratio < 1 due to high mortality; while Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda had a ratio of > 1 due to high incidence. The HIV incidence rate in Ethiopia was dropped by 76% among under 5 children in 2017 compared to 2010 and the country would likely to attain the 2020 national target, but far behind achieving the target among the 15–49 age group.

Conclusions

Ethiopia and neighboring countries have made remarkable progress towards achieving the 75% HIV/AIDS mortality reduction target by 2020, although they progressed poorly in reducing HIV incidence. By recording an incidence:prevalence ratio benchmark of less than 0.03, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda are well heading towards epidemic control. Nonetheless, the high HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Ethiopia for its incidence requires innovative strategies to reach out undiagnosed cases and to build institutional capacity for generating strong evidence to ensure sustainable epidemic control.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10269-y.

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Most cited references 19

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Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Angela Y Chang, Vegard F. Skirbekk, Stefanos Tyrovolas … (2019)

Summary Background Traditional metrics for population health ageing tend not to differentiate between extending life expectancy and adding healthy years. A population ageing metric that reflects both longevity and health status, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and allows for comparisons across countries and time is required to understand the progression of ageing and to inform policies. Methods Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, we developed a metric that reflects age-related morbidity and mortality at the population level. First, we identified a set of age-related diseases, defined as diseases with incidence rates among the adult population increasing quadratically with age, and measured their age-related burden, defined as the sum of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of these diseases among adults. Second, we estimated age-standardised age-related health burden across 195 countries between 1990 and 2017. Using global average 65-year-olds as the reference population, we calculated the equivalent age in terms of age-related disease burden for all countries. Third, we analysed how the changes in age-related burden during the study period relate to different factors with a decomposition analysis. Finally, we describe how countries with similar levels of overall age-related burden experience different onsets of ageing. We represent the uncertainty of our estimates by calculating uncertainty intervals (UI) from 1000 draw-level estimates for each disease, country, year, and age. Findings 92 diseases were identified as age related, accounting for 51·3% (95% UI 48·5–53·9) of all global burden among adults in 2017. Across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), the rate of age-related burden ranged from 137·8 DALYs (128·9–148·3) per 1000 adults in high SDI countries to 265·9 DALYs (251·0–280·1) in low SDI countries. The equivalent age to average 65-year-olds globally spanned from 76·1 years (75·6–76·7) in Japan to 45·6 years (42·6–48·2) in Papua New Guinea. Age-standardised age-related disease rates have decreased over time across all SDI levels and regions between 1990 and 2017, mainly due to decreases in age-related case fatality and disease severity. Even among countries with similar age-standardised death rates, large differences in the onset and patterns of accumulating age-related burden exist. Interpretation The new metric facilitates the shift from thinking not just about chronological age but the health status and disease severity of ageing populations. Our findings could provide inputs into policymaking by identifying key drivers of variation in the ageing burden and resources required for addressing the burden. Funding National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health.

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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Haidong Wang, Tim M Wolock, Austin Carter … (2016)

Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

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Successes and challenges of the millennium development goals in Ethiopia: lessons for the sustainable development goals

Yibeltal Assefa, Wim Van Damme, Owain D Williams … (2017)

We analysed the performance of Ethiopia in achieving the health-related millennium development goals (MDGs) with the aim of acquiring lessons for the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ethiopia achieved most of the health MDGs: a 67% reduction in under-five mortality, a 71% decline in maternal mortality ratio, a 90% decline in new HIV infections, a decrease in malaria-related deaths by 73% and a more than 50% decline in mortality due to tuberculosis. We argue that these achievements are due to implementation of a mix of comprehensive strategies within the health system and across other sectors of the government. Scaling up of interventions by disease control programmes (including the health extension programme) and strengthening of the health system have played important roles towards the achievements. These health gains could not have been realised without progress in the other MDGs: poverty reduction, education, access to safe drinking-water and peace and stability of the country. However, the gains were not equitable, with differences between urban and rural areas, among regions and socioeconomic strata. Ethiopia's remarkable success in meeting most of the targets of the health-related MDGs could be explained by its comprehensive and multisectoral approach for health development. The inequity gap remains a challenge that achieving the health-related SDGs requires the country to implement strategies, which specifically target more marginal populations and geographic areas. This also needs peace and stability, without which it is almost impossible to improve health.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie: alemmirkuzie@yahoo.com

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Public Health

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Public Health

Title: BMC Public Health

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2458

Publication date (Electronic): 4 February 2021

Publication date PMC-release: 4 February 2021

Publication date Collection: 2021

Volume: 21

Electronic Location Identifier: 285

Affiliations

[1 ]GRID grid.452387.f, Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI), ; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

[2 ]GRID grid.7914.b, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7443, University of Bergen, ; Bergen, Norway

[3 ]GRID grid.34477.33, ISNI 0000000122986657, University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, ; Seattle, USA

[4 ]GRID grid.460724.3, St. Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College, ; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Article

Publisher ID: 10269

DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10269-y

PMC ID: 7863245

PubMed ID: 33541303

SO-VID: e44422fb-b479-4a1c-a3df-c588a6c069e0

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Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

History

Date received : 16 January 2020

Date accepted : 19 January 2021

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

Keywords: eritrea,ethiopia,east africa,fast track,hiv/aids,kenya,hiv incidence,hiv/aids prevalence,hiv/aids related mortality,rwanda,sdg,tanzania,targets,tracking,uganda

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

Keywords: eritrea, ethiopia, east africa, fast track, hiv/aids, kenya, hiv incidence, hiv/aids prevalence, hiv/aids related mortality, rwanda, sdg, tanzania, targets, tracking, uganda

Progress towards the 2020 fast track HIV/AIDS reduction targets across ages in Ethiopia as compared to neighboring countries using global burden of diseases 2017 data

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Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Supplementary Information

Related collections

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Most cited references 19

Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Successes and challenges of the millennium development goals in Ethiopia: lessons for the sustainable development goals

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