The Epidemiology of Acute Respiratory Failure in Critically Ill Patients

The independent effects of chronic disease, age, severity of illness, lung injury score (LIS) and etiology, and preceding nonpulmonary organ-system dysfunction (OSD) on the outcome of acute lung injury (ALI) have not been examined in an exclusively medical-intensive-care-unit (MICU) population. Therefore, 107 consecutive MICU patients with ALI (76% with acute respiratory distress syndrome [ARDS]) were prospectively investigated. The impact of comorbidities, age > 65 yr, acute physiology score (APS), LIS, etiology of ALI, and OSD on hospital survival were studied. The overall mortality was 62 of 107 patients (58%), including 47 (58%) with ARDS. With univariate analysis, age > 65 yr, organ transplantation, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, active malignancy, chronic steroid use, and a septic or aspiration-related etiology of ALI were associated with a > or = 1.2-fold greater relative risk (RR) of hospital mortality. With multiple logistic regression, independent predictors of hospital death were age > 65 yr, organ transplantation, HIV infection, cirrhosis, active malignancy, and sepsis. APS, LIS, aspiration-related etiology of ALI, preceding OSD, and other comorbidities were not independently predictive of hospital death. Multivariate analysis of the ARDS cohort showed similar results, although cirrhosis and malignancy did not reach statistical significance. We conclude that comorbid conditions, older age, and sepsis etiology are independent predictors of hospital death in exclusively MICU patients with ALI (76% of whom satisfied criteria for ARDS). These factors should be considered in analyzing studies of new therapies and interpreting trends in mortality for ALI and ARDS.

To analyze temporal trends in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) fatality rates since 1983 at one institution. Cohort. Intensive care units of a large county hospital. Consecutive adult patients (> or = 18 years of age) meeting ARDS criteria were identified through daily surveillance of intensive care units (N = 918 from 1983 through 1993). The major causes were sepsis syndrome in 37% and major trauma in 25%; 37% had other risks. Sixty-five percent were male. The median age was 45 years (range, 18 to 92 years); 70% were younger than 60 years. Hospital mortality. Overall fatality rates showed no trend from 1983 to 1987, declined slightly in 1988 and 1989, and decreased to a low of 36% in 1993 (95% confidence interval, 25% to 46%). The crude rates were largely unchanged after adjustment for age, ARDS risk, and gender distribution. While patients both younger than 60 years and 60 years or older experienced declines in fatality rate, the larger decrease occurred in the younger cohort. In sepsis patients, ARDS fatality rates declined steadily, from 67% in 1990 to 40% in 1993 (95% confidence interval, 23% to 57%). The decline in sepsis-related ARDS fatality was confined largely to patients less than 60 years of age. Trauma patients and all other patients also experienced declines in fatality rates after 1987, although these trends were not as strong and consistent as in the sepsis population. In this large series, we observed a significant decrease in fatality rates occurring largely in patients younger than 60 years and in those with sepsis syndrome as their risk for ARDS. We are unable to determine the extent to which experimental therapies or other changes in treatment have contributed to the observed decline in the ARDS fatality rate. Institution-specific rates and temporal trends in ARDS fatality rates should be considered in clinical trials designed to prevent ARDS and the high mortality associated with this syndrome.

To identify the potential impact of novel therapeutic approaches, we studied the early predictive factors of survival at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in a 24-bed medical ICU of an academic tertiary care hospital. Over a 48-mo period, a total of 3,511 adult patients were admitted and 259 mechanically ventilated patients met ARDS criteria, as defined by American-European consensus conference, i.e., bilateral pulmonary infiltrates and PaO2/FIO2 lower than 200 without left atrial hypertension. These patients were randomly included in a developmental sample (177 patients) and a validation sample (82 patients). Demographic variables, hemodynamic and respiratory parameters, underlying diseases, as well as several severity scores (SAPS, SAPS-II, OSF) and Lung Injury Score (LIS) were collected. These variables were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors and entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to evaluate their independent prognostic roles. The overall mortality rate was 65%. SAPS-II, the severity of the underlying medical conditions, the oxygenation index (mean airway pressure x FIO2 x 100/PaO2), the length of mechanical ventilation prior to ARDS, the mechanism of lung injury, cirrhosis, and occurrence of right ventricular dysfunction were independently associated with an elevated risk of death. Model calibration was very good in the developmental and validation samples (p = 0.84 and p = 0.72, respectively), as was model discrimination (area under the ROC curves of 0.95 and 0.92, respectively). Thus, the prognosis of ARDS seems to be related to the triggering risk factor, the severity of the respiratory illness, and the occurrence of a right ventricle dysfunction, after adjustment for a general severity score.