Cold snaps, heatwaves, and arthropod growth : Thermal performance of arthropods under stress

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) describe the effects of temperature on biological rate processes. Here, we use examples from our work on common killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) to illustrate some important conceptual issues relating to TPCs in the context of using these curves to predict the responses of organisms to climate change. Phenotypic plasticity has the capacity to alter the shape and position of the TPCs for acute exposures, but these changes can be obscured when rate processes are measured only following chronic exposures. For example, the acute TPC for mitochondrial respiration in killifish is exponential in shape, but this shape changes with acclimation. If respiration rate is measured only at the acclimation temperature, the TPC is linear, concealing the underlying mechanistic complexity at an acute time scale. These issues are particularly problematic when attempting to use TPCs to predict the responses of organisms to temperature change in natural environments. Many TPCs are generated using laboratory exposures to constant temperatures, but temperature fluctuates in the natural environment, and the mechanisms influencing performance at acute and chronic time scales, and the responses of the performance traits at these time scales may be quite different. Unfortunately, our current understanding of the mechanisms underlying the responses of organisms to temperature change is incomplete, particularly with respect to integrating from processes occurring at the level of single proteins up to whole-organism functions across different time scales, which is a challenge for the development of strongly grounded mechanistic models of responses to global climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.