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      Integrating biogeography and behavioral ecology to rapidly address biodiversity loss

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          Abstract

          Addressing climate change and biodiversity loss will be the defining ecological, political, and humanitarian challenge of our time. Alarmingly, policymakers face a narrowing window of opportunity to prevent the worst impacts, necessitating complex decisions about which land to set aside for biodiversity preservation. Yet, our ability to make these decisions is hindered by our limited capacity to predict how species will respond to synergistic drivers of extinction risk. We argue that a rapid integration of biogeography and behavioral ecology can meet these challenges because of the distinct, yet complementary levels of biological organization they address, scaling from individuals to populations, and from species and communities to continental biotas. This union of disciplines will advance efforts to predict biodiversity’s responses to climate change and habitat loss through a deeper understanding of how biotic interactions and other behaviors modulate extinction risk, and how responses of individuals and populations impact the communities in which they are embedded. Fostering a rapid mobilization of expertise across behavioral ecology and biogeography is a critical step toward slowing biodiversity loss.

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            Extinction risk from climate change.

            Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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              Concluding Remarks

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
                PNAS
                Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
                National Academy of Sciences
                0027-8424
                1091-6490
                5 April 2023
                11 April 2023
                5 April 2023
                : 120
                : 15
                : e2110866120
                Affiliations
                [1] aDepartment of Biology, University of Oklahoma , Norman, OK 73019
                [2] bSam Noble Oklahoma Museum of Natural History, University of Oklahoma , Norman, OK 73072
                Author notes
                2To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: kamarske@ 123456ou.edu or hclanier@ 123456ou.edu .

                Edited by Gene Robinson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Institute for Genomic Biology, Urbana, IL; received April 7, 2022; accepted February 20, 2023

                1K.A.M. and H.C.L. contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9337-4017
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7573-096X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2574-8384
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4110-3562
                Article
                202110866
                10.1073/pnas.2110866120
                10104574
                37018201
                f33c7326-967a-42df-85de-8a4cf43456de
                Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

                This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

                History
                Page count
                Pages: 10, Words: 6792
                Funding
                Funded by: National Science Foundation (NSF), FundRef 100000001;
                Award ID: DBI-2021880
                Award Recipient : Katharine Ann Marske Award Recipient : Hayley C Lanier Award Recipient : Cameron D Siler Award Recipient : Ashlee H Rowe Award Recipient : Laura R Stein
                Categories
                pers, Perspective
                eco, Ecology
                414
                447
                Perspective
                Biological Sciences
                Ecology

                climate change,extinction,biogeography,behavioral ecology,convergent science

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