Separate and Unequal: Race-Based Algorithms and Implications for Nephrology

An equation from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) provides more accurate estimates of the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) than that from the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) Study, although both include a two-level variable for race (Black and White and other). Since creatinine generation differs among ethnic groups, it is possible that a multilevel ethnic variable would allow more accurate estimates across all groups. To evaluate this, we developed an equation to calculate eGFR that includes a four-level race variable (Black, Asian, Native American and Hispanic, and White and other) using a database of 8254 patients pooled from 10 studies. This equation was then validated in 4014 patients using 17 additional studies from the United States and Europe (validation database), and in 1022 patients from China (675), Japan (248), and South Africa (99). Coefficients for the Black, Asian, and Native American and Hispanic groups resulted in 15, 5, and 1% higher levels of eGFR, respectively, compared with the White and other group. In the validation database, the two-level race equation had minimal bias in Black, Native American and Hispanic, and White and other cohorts. The four-level ethnicity equation significantly improved bias in Asians of the validation data set and in Chinese. Both equations had a large bias in Japanese and South African patients. Thus, heterogeneity in performance among the ethnic and geographic groups precludes use of the four-level race equation. The CKD-EPI two-level race equation can be used in the United States and Europe across a wide range of ethnicity.

We propose a continuous kidney donor risk index (KDRI) for deceased donor kidneys, combining donor and transplant variables to quantify graft failure risk. By using national data from 1995 to 2005, we analyzed 69,440 first-time, kidney-only, deceased donor adult transplants. Cox regression was used to model the risk of death or graft loss, based on donor and transplant factors, adjusting for recipient factors. The proposed KDRI includes 14 donor and transplant factors, each found to be independently associated with graft failure or death: donor age, race, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, serum creatinine, cerebrovascular cause of death, height, weight, donation after cardiac death, hepatitis C virus status, human leukocyte antigen-B and DR mismatch, cold ischemia time, and double or en bloc transplant. The KDRI reflects the rate of graft failure relative to that of a healthy 40-year-old donor. Transplants of kidneys in the highest KDRI quintile (>1.45) had an adjusted 5-year graft survival of 63%, compared with 82% and 79% in the two lowest KDRI quintiles (<0.79 and 0.79-<0.96, respectively). There is a considerable overlap in the KDRI distribution by expanded and nonexpanded criteria donor classification. The graded impact of KDRI on graft outcome makes it a useful decision-making tool at the time of the deceased donor kidney offer.