Long-term changes in zooplankton size distribution in the Peruvian Humboldt Current System: conditions favouring sardine or anchovy

Upwelling of nutrient-rich, subsurface water sustains high productivity in the ocean's eastern boundary currents. These ecosystems support a rate of fish harvest nearly 100 times the global mean and account for >20% of the world's marine fish catch. Environmental variability is thought to be the major cause of the decadal-scale biomass fluctuations characteristic of fish populations in these regions, but the mechanisms relating atmospheric physics to fish production remain unexplained. Two atmospheric conditions induce different types of upwelling in these ecosystems: coastal, alongshore wind stress, resulting in rapid upwelling (with high vertical velocity, w); and wind-stress curl, resulting in slower upwelling (low w). We show that the level of wind-stress curl has increased and that production of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) varies with wind-stress curl over the past six decades. The extent of isopycnal shoaling, nutricline depth, and chlorophyll concentration in the upper ocean also correlate positively with wind-stress curl. The size structure of plankton assemblages is related to the rate of wind-forced upwelling, and sardine feed efficiently on small plankters generated by slow upwelling. Upwelling rate is a fundamental determinant of the biological structure and production in coastal pelagic ecosystems, and future changes in the magnitude and spatial gradient of wind stress may have important and differing effects on these ecosystems. Understanding of the biological mechanisms relating fisheries production to environmental variability is essential for wise management of marine resources under a changing climate.

Climate strongly influences the distribution and diversity of animals and plants, but its affect on microbial communities is poorly understood. By using resource competition theory, fundamental physical principles and the fossil record we review how climate selects marine eukaryotic phytoplankton taxa. We suggest that climate determines the equator-to-pole and continent-to-land thermal gradients that provide energy for the wind-driven turbulent mixing in the upper ocean. This mixing, in turn, controls the nutrient fluxes that determine cell size and taxa-level distributions. Understanding this chain of linked processes will allow informed predictions to be made about how phytoplankton communities will change in the future.