Making the world safe for power transition - Towards a conceptual combination of power transition theory and hegemony theory

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Making the world safe for power transition - Towards a conceptual combination of power transition theory and hegemony theory

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Author(s): Carsten Rauch , Iris Wurm

Publication date (Print): September 2013

Journal: Journal of Global Faultlines

Publisher: Pluto Journals

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to establish a political framework to mitigate the crisis propensity of power transitions in the international system. One approach that focuses on this phenomenon is Power Transition Theory, which warns that situations in which rising powers approach a (declining) hegemon often escalate into conflict or war. Specifically unsatisfied rising powers are expected to come into conflict with the dominant power and each other. Power Transition Theory, however, has only a limited view on the structure of the international order. It overlooks the possibility of ruling the system by consensus rather than by coercion, highlighted by Liberal Hegemony Theory. Merging Power Transition Theory with liberal Hegemony Theory can reveal previously hidden opportunities to manage peaceful power transitions. In the light of the prolonged economic growth of countries like China and India this finding might prove to be crucial for the thinking of future world-order-governance politics.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Carsten Rauch

Iris Wurm

Journal

Journal ID (doi): 10.13169

Journal ID (publisher-id): jglobfaul

Title: Journal of Global Faultlines

Publisher: Pluto Journals

ISSN (Print): 23977825

ISSN (Electronic): 20542089

Publication date (Print): September 2013

Volume: 1

Issue: 1

Pages: 50-69

Affiliations

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, E-mail: rauch@ 123456hsfk.de

Goethe University Frankfurt, E-mail: wurm@ 123456soz.uni-frankfurt.de

Article

Publisher ID: jglobfaul.1.1.0050

DOI: 10.13169/jglobfaul.1.1.0050

SO-VID: c1a709d5-eab4-4694-9b0f-4caeffc18f4c

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Social & Behavioral Sciences

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Comments

Comment on this article

[1] Albert, M. (2001) ‘Hegemonie und Multipolarität’ in Politik im 21. Jahrhundert , eds C Leggewie and R Münch, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt pp. 375–389.

[2] Bernstein, R. and Munro, R. (1998) The Coming Conflict with China . New York, NY: Vintage.

[3] Booth, K. and Wheeler, N. (2008) The Security Dilemma . Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.

[4] Brooks, S. and Wohlforth, W. (2008) World Out of Balance - International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

[5] Bussmann, M. and Oneal, J. (2007) ‘Do Hegemons Distribute Private Goods? A Test of Power-Transition Theory’, Journal of Conflict Resolution , 51 (1), 88–111.

[6] Casetti, E. (2003) ‘Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?’, Journal of Peace Research , 40 (6), 661–675.

[7] Chadefaux, T. (2011) ‘Bargaining Over Power: When do Shifts in Power Lead to War’, International Theory . 3 (2), 228–253.

[8] Chan, S. (2008) China, the U.S., and the Power-Transition Theory - A Critique . London and New York: Routledge.

[9] Clark, I. (2009) ‘Towards an English School Theory of Hegemony’, European Journal of International Relations , 15 (2), 203–228.

[10] Cooney, K. and Sato, Y., (eds.) (2009) The Rise of China and International Security - America and Asia Respond . London: Routledge.

[11] De Soysa, I., Oneal, J. and Park, Y. (1998) ‘But Power and Wealth Are Satisfying - A Reply To Lemke And Reed’, Journal of Conflict Resolution , 42 (4), 517–520.

[12] Deudney, D. and Ikenberry, G. (1999), ‘The nature and source of liberal international order’, Review of International Studies , 25 (2), 179–196.

[13] DiCicco, J. and Levy, J. (2003) ‘The Power Transition Research Program - A Lakatosian Analysis’ in C. Elman and M. Elman (eds.), Progress In International Relations Theory - Appraising The Field . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 109–157.

[14] Ferguson, N. (2003) ‘Hegemony or Empire?’, Foreign Affairs , 82 (5), 154–161.

[15] Friedberg, A. (2005) ‘The Future of U.S.-China Relations - Is Conflict Inevitable?’, International Security , 30 (2), 7–45.

[16] Fukuyama, F. (1992) The End of History and the Last Man . London: Hamilton.

[17] Florig, D. (2010) ‘Hegemonic Overreach vs. Imperial Overstretch’, Review of International Studies , 36 (4), 1103–1119.

[18] Gilpin, R. (1981) War and Change in Word Politics . Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.

[19] Haass, R. (2008) ‘The Age of Nonpolarity - What Will Follow U.S. Dominance’, Foreign Affairs , 87 (3), 44–56.

[20] Hansen, B. (2011) Unipolarity and World Politics - A Theory and its Implications . London: Routledge.

[21] Hart, A. and Jones, B. (2010) ‘How Do Rising Powers Rise?’, Survival , 52 (6), 63–88.

[22] Herborth, B. and Wurm, I. (2008) The Greater Space of Hegemony and Empire . Second Global International Studies Conference, Ljubljana, Slovenia.

[23] Herz, J. (1950) ‘Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma’, World Politics , 2 (2), 157–180.

[24] Houweling, H. and Siccama, J. (1988) ‘Power Transitions as a Cause of War’, Journal of Conflict Resolution , 32 (1), 87–102.

[25] Ikenberry, G. and Kupchan, C. (1990) ‘Socialization and Hegemonic Power’, International Organization , 44 (3), 283–315.

[26] Ikenberry, G. (1998/99) ‘Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Power Order’, International Security , 23 (3), 43–78.

[27] Ikenberry, G. (1999) ‘Liberal Hegemony and the Future American Postwar Order’ in J. Hall and T.V. Paul (eds.), International Order and the Future of World Politics . Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 123–145.

[28] Ikenberry, G. (2001) After Victory, Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

[29] Jianyong, Y. (2008) ‘Peaceful Rise of China: Myth or Reality?’, International Politics , 45 (4), 439–456.

[30] Kagan, R. (2008) The Return of History and the End of Dreams . London: Atlantic Books.

[31] Kang, C. N. and Gibler, D. (2012) ‘An assessment of the validity of empirical measures of state satisfaction with the systemic status quo’, European Journal of International Relations , June 11, 2012; 1354066112436702, first published on June 11, 2012

[32] Kennedy, P. (1987) The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers-Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 , New York, NY: Random House.

[33] Keohane, R. (1984) After Hegemony, Co-operation and Discord in the World Political Economy . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

[34] Keohane, R. and Nye, J. (1989) Power and Interdependence . New York, NY: Jr. Pearson Scott Foresman.

[35] Kim, W. (1996) ‘Power Parity, Alliance, and War from 1648 to 1975’ in J Kugler and D Lemke (eds.), Parity and War - Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger . Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 93–105.

[36] Kim, W. (1991) ‘Alliance Transitions and Great Power War’, American Political Science Review , 35 (4), 833–850.

[37] Kim, W. (1992) ‘Power transitions and Great Power war from Westphalia to Waterloo’, World Politics , 45 (1), 153–172.

[38] Kindleberger, C. (1988) The International Economic Order, Essays on Financial Crisis and International Public Goods . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

[39] Kindleberger, C. (1983) ‘Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy’, International Studies Quarterly . 25 (2), 242–254.

[40] Kirshner, J. (2012) ‘The tragedy of offensive realism: Classical realism and the rise of China’, European Journal of International Relations , 18 (1), 53–75.

[41] Kugler, J. and Lemke, D., (eds.) (1996) Parity and War - Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger . Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press.

[42] Kugler, J. and Hussein, S. (1990) Conditional Anarchy: The Importance of the Status Quo in World Politics . Annual meeting of the Peace Science Society.

[43] Layne, C. (2009) ‘The Waning of U.S. Hegemony - Myth or Reality? A Review Essay’, International Security , 31 (1), 147–172.

[44] Layne, C. (2008) ‘China's Challenge to US Hegemony’, Current History , 107 (705), 13–18.

[45] Lebow, R. and Valentino, B. (2009) ‘Lost in Transition: A Critical Analysis of Power Transition Theory’, International Relations , 23 (3), 389–410.

[46] Lemke, D. (2002) Regions of war and peace . Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press

[47] Lemke, D. and Kugler, J. (1996) ‘The Evolution of the Power Transition Perspective’ in J Kugler and D Lemke (eds.), Parity and War - Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger . Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press, pp. 3–34.

[48] Lemke, D. and Werner, S. (1996) ‘Power Parity, Commitment to Change, and War’, International Studies Quarterly , 40 (2), 235–260.

[49] Lemke, D. and Reed, W. (1996) ‘Regime type and status quo evaluations: Power transition theory and the democratic peace’, International Interactions , 22 (2), 143–164.

[50] Masala, C. (2005) Kenneth N. Waltz . Baden-Baden: Nomos.

[51] Mearsheimer, J. (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics . New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

[52] Menzel, U. (2004) ‘Konkurrierende Weltordnungs-Modelle in historischer Perspektive’, KonradAdenauer-Stiftung , KAS-AI 06(04), 4–25.

[53] Merritt, R. and Zinnes, D. (1989) ‘Alternative Indexes of National Power’ in R Stoll and M Ward (eds.), Power in world politics . Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, pp. 11–28.

[54] Modelski, G. and Thompson, W. (1996) Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Politics and Economies . Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press.

[55] Modelski, G. (1987) Long Cycles in World Politics . Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press

[56] Müller, H. (2009) ‘Mächtekonstellationen’ in M. Ferdowsi (ed), Internationale Politik als Überlebensstrategie . Munich: Bayerische Landeszentrale für politische Bildungsarbeit, pp. 3–24.

[57] Müller, H. and Schörnig, N. (2006) Rüstungsdynamik und Rüstungskontrolle . Baden-Baden: Nomos.

[58] Münkler, H. (2005) Imperien . Berlin: Rowohlt Verlag.

[59] Nel, P. (2010) ‘Redistribution and Recognition: What Emerging Regional Powers Want’, Review of International Studies , 36 (4), 951–974.

[60] Nexon, D. and Wright, T. (2007), ‘What's at Stake in the American Empire Debate’, American Political Science Review , 101 (2), 253–271.

[61] Nye, J. 2003, Das Paradox der amerikanischen Mach: Warum die einzige Supermacht der Welt Verbündete braucht . Hamburg: Europäische Verlagsanstalt.

[62] Organski, A.F.K. (1968) World politics - Second Edition . New York, NY: Knopf.

[63] Organski, A.F.K. and Kugler, J. (1980) The war ledger . Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

[64] Prys, M. and Robel, S. (2011) ‘Hegemony, Not Empire’, Journal of International Relations and Development , 14 (2), 247–279.

[65] Rauch, C. and Wurm, I. (2011) Towards an Explanation of Peaceful Power Transitions: PTT, Liberal Hegemony and Justice . 6th ECPR General Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

[66] Ruggie, J. (1993) ‘Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution’ in G Ruggie (ed.), Multilateralism Matters: The Theory and Practice of an Institutional Form . New York: Columbia University Press, pp. 3–50.

[67] Schmitt, C. (1991), Völkerrechtliche Großraumordnung mit Interventionsverbot für raumfremde Mächte, Ein Beitrag zum Rechtsbegriff im Völkerrecht , Reprint of the 1941 edition, Berlin: Duncker & Humblot.

[68] Schroeder, P. (2004) Is the U.S. an Empire?. History News Network [internet] 16 January. Available at: <http://hnn.us/articles/1237.html>. [Accessed September 2013].

[69] Schweller, R. (1999) ‘Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory’ in A. Johnston and R. Ross (eds.) Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power . London: Routledge, pp. 1–31.

[70] Shiping, T. (2010) ‘The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis’, Security Studies , 18 (3), 587–623.

[71] Singer, D. (1963) ‘Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model’, American Political Science Review , 57 (2), 420–430.

[72] Siverson, R. and Diehl, P. (1989) ‘Arms Race, the Conflict Spiral, and the Onset of War’ in M. Midlarsky (ed.), Handbook of War Studies . Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, pp. 195–218.

[73] Siverson, R. and Miller, R. (1996) ‘The Power Transition: Problems and Prospects’ in J. Kugler and D. Lemke (eds.), Parity and War - Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger . Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, pp. 57–73.

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