Deterrence in Indo-Pak Context: A Critical Appraisal

Ahmad Khan, null; Ali Ahsan, null

doi:10.13169/polipers.13.1.0053

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Policy Perspectives: The Journal of the Institute of Policy Studies

Volume 13, Issue 1

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Deterrence in Indo-Pak Context: A Critical Appraisal

research-article

Author(s): Ahmad Khan , Ali Ahsan

Publication date (Print): 2016

Journal: Policy Perspectives: The Journal of the Institute of Policy Studies

Publisher: Pluto Journals

Keywords: Deterrence, Stability-Instability, Credible Minimum Deterrence, Full Spectrum Deterrence, Missile, South Asia, Nuclear Doctrine

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Abstract

It was an imbalance in the conventional power that forced Pakistan to see nuclear weapons' capability, as a deterrence against India, after the war of 1971 that resulted in separation of former East Pakistan. This is the context of ‘deterrence’ in today's South Asia. The only solution to the dilemmas created by the region's nuclearization is to engage seriously and constructively to build a better understanding of each other's conventional and nuclear policies, doctrines, and postures, and meaningful CBMs both in nuclear and conventional military spheres to build trust and confidence. Both India and Pakistan have to maintain rational decision-making to ensure the credibility of their deterrence and to achieve the objective of maintaining stability.

Content

Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (doi): 10.13169

Journal ID (publisher-id): polipers

Title: Policy Perspectives: The Journal of the Institute of Policy Studies

Publisher: Pluto Journals

ISSN (Print): 18121829

ISSN (Electronic): 18127347

Publication date (Print): 2016

Volume: 13

Issue: 1

Pages: 53-76

Affiliations

Ahmad Khan is a PhD scholar at the Department of Strategic Studies, National Defense University (NDU), Islamabad while Ali Ahsan is a postgraduate student in the International Relations Deptt. of the same university.

Article

Publisher ID: polipers.13.1.0053

DOI: 10.13169/polipers.13.1.0053

SO-VID: 4bfb70d6-a729-4497-b2fd-e9c6068e2b51

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All content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission of the publisher or the author. Articles published in the journal are distributed under a http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

History

ScienceOpen disciplines: Education,Religious studies & Theology,Social & Behavioral Sciences,Law,Economics

Keywords: South Asia,Credible Minimum Deterrence,Missile,Full Spectrum Deterrence,Stability-Instability,Nuclear Doctrine,Deterrence

Bibliography

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Comments

Comment on this article

[1] Ahmed, Ali. “Re-visioning the Nuclear Command Authority.” Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (September 9, 2009). Accessed April 4, 2015. http://www.idsa.in/strategiccomments/RevisioningtheNuclearCommandAuthority_AliAhmed_090909.html.

[2] Ahsan, Ali. “The Evolution of Indian Nuclear Thought.” CISS Insight: Quarterly News and Views II, no. 4 (October-December 2014).

[3] Arms Control Association . “Fissile Material Cutoff Treat (FMCT) at a Glance.” August 2013. Accessed January 15, 2014. http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/fmct.

[4] Arms Control Association . “India's Draft Nuclear Doctrine.” July 1, 1999. Accessed January 1, 2014. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1999_07–08/ffja99.

[5] BJP Election Manifesto 2014. “Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat.” Accessed April 9, 2014. http://bjpelectionmanifesto.com/pdf/manifesto2014.pdf.

[6] Bowen, P. Clayton and Danial Wolven. “Command and Control Challenges in South Asia.” The Nonproliferation Review (Spring-Summer 1999).

[7] Cheema, Zafar Iqbal. “Revisiting Nuclear Deterrence and Strategic Stability in the Shadow of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) in South Asia,” in Shifting Dynamics and Emerging Power Equilibrium in South and Central Asia around Post-2014 . Edited by Zafar Iqbal Cheema. Islamabad: Strategic Vision Institute, 2013.

[8] Cheema, Zafar Iqbal. “Pakistan's Posture of Credible Minimum Deterrence: Current Challenges and Future Efficacy.” Margalla Paper . Special Issue (2008).

[9] Cheema, Zafar Iqbal. Indian Nuclear Deterrence: Its Evolution, Development and Implications for South Asian Security . Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010.

[10] Davenport, Kelsey. “India Moves Closer to Nuclear Triad.” Arms Control Association . September 2012. Accessed November 23, 2013. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012_09/India-Moves-Closer-to-Nuclear-Triad.

[11] Federation of American Scientists . “Opening Remarks by National Security Adviser Mr. Brajesh Mishra at the Release of Draft Indian Nuclear Doctrine.” August 17, 1999. Accessed January 1, 2014. http://www.fas.org/news/india/1999/opstm-indnucld.htm.

[12] Government of India. “Cabinet Committee on Security Reviews Progress in Operationalizing India's Nuclear Doctrine.” Press Information Bureau, Government of India , January 4, 2003. Accessed January 1, 2014. http://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2003/rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html.

[13] Hoodbhoy, Pervez. “The Flight to Nowhere: Pakistan's Nuclear Trajectory.” Heinrich Boll Stiftung (November 2009). Accessed October 10, 2013. http://pk.boell.org/sites/default/files/downloads/The_Flight_To_Nowhere_by_Pervez_Hoodbhoy_GE_(2).

[14] IPFM. India in Banning the Production of Fissile Materials for Nuclear Weapons: Country Perspectives on the Challenges to a Fissile Material (Cutoff) Treaty . Princeton: IPFM, 2008. Accessed March 31, 2015. http://fissilematerials.org/library/FMCT-Perspectives.pdf.

[15] Jaspal, Zafar Nawaz. “Agni-V: Military Objectives beyond South Asia.” Weekly Pulse , April 27, 2012. Accessed November 15, 2013. http://weeklypulse.org/details.aspx?contentID=2246&storylist=1.

[16] Joshi, Shashank. “Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Nightmare: Déjà vu?” Canter of Strategic and International Studies . Accessed November 15, 2013. http://csis.org/files/publication/TWQ_13Summer_Joshi.pdf.

[17] Kazmi, Zahir. “SRBMs, Deterrence and Regional Stability in South Asia: A Case Study of Nasr and Prahaar.” Institute of Regional Studies Islamabad (October 2012). Accessed September 30, 2013. http://www.irs.org.pk/strategic/spso12.pdf.

[18] Keck, Zachery. “Commentary: India's Nuclear Blunder.” The National Interest . August 26, 2013. Accessed November 17, 2013. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/indias-nuclear-blunder-8946?page=show.

[19] Keck, Zachery. “Commentary: India's Nuclear Weapons Folly.” The National Interest . September 18, 2013. Accessed November 17, 2013. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/indias-nuclear-weapons-folly-9095?page=show.

[20] Kerr, K. Paul and Mary Beth Nikitin. “Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues.” Congressional Research Service . March 19, 2013. Accessed November 5, 2013. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34248.pdf.

[21] Khalid, Irum. “Nuclear Doctrine: Ramification for South Asia.” South Asian Studies 27, no.2 (July-December 2012).

[22] Khan, Feroz Hassan. “Challenges to Nuclear Stability in South Asia.” The Nonproliferation Review (Spring 2003).

[23] Khan, Khurshid. “Deterrence Stability, Security Doctrines and Escalation Control in South Asia.” IPRI Journal XIII, no. 2 (Summer 2013).

[24] Khan, Zulfqar. India-Pakistan Nuclear Rivalry: Perceptions, Misperception, and Mutual Deterrence . IPRI Paper 9. Islamabad Policy Research Institute, January 2005.

[25] Krepon, Michael. “Looking Back: The 1998 Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Tests.” Arms Control Association . May 2008. Accessed January 27, 2014. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_05/lookingback.

[26] Krepon, Michael. “The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control in South Asia.” Stimson Center . Accessed November 6, 2013. http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/ESCCONTROLCHAPTER1.pdf.

[27] Kristensen M. Hans, and Robert S. Norris. “Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2011.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 67 no. 4 (July-August 2011).

[28] Lavoy, Peter. “Pakistan's Nuclear Posture: Security and Survivability.” NPEC . January 21, 2007. Accessed December 1, 2013. http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=291&rid=6.

[29] Lele, Ajey and Parveen Bhardwaj. “India's Nuclear Triad: A Net Assessment.” IDSA Occasional Paper no. 31 (April 2013). Accessed November 27, 2013. http://www.idsa.in/system/files/OP_IndiasNuclearTriad.pdf.

[30] Levy, Adrian and Catherine Scott-Clarke. Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons . New York: Walker & Co., 2007.

[31] Majid, Abdul. “Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia.” IPRI Paper 4. Accessed October 15, 2013. http://ipripak.org/papers/nuclearrisk.shtml.

[32] Menon, Parkash. “Deterrence and Limited War in the Indo-Pak Context.” Thesis. National Defence College, New Delhi, 2003. Accessed November 1, 2013. http://indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/web/44-menon.pdf.

[33] Mian, Zia and A.H. Nayyar. “Pakistan's Nuclear Diplomacy and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treat.” In Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out . Edited by Pervez Hoodbhoy. Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2013. pdf.

[34] Reif, Kingston and Madeleine Foley. “Factsheet on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).” Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation . July 15, 2009. Accessed January 29, 2014. http://armscontrolcenter.org/issues/nonproliferation/articles/071509_factsheet_fmct/.

[35] Salik, Naeem. The Genesis of South Asian Nuclear Deterrence: Pakistan's Perspective . Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2009.

[36] Saran, Shyam. “Is India's Nuclear Deterrent Credible?” Arms Control Wonk . April 24, 2013. Accessed November 22, 2013. http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2013/05/Final-Is-Indias-Nuclear-Deterrent-Credible-rev1-2-1-3.pdf.

[37] Schell, Philip and Hans M. Kristensen. “Pakistani Nuclear Forces.” In SIPRI Yearbook 2013. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2013.

[38] Siddiqa, Ayesha. Indo-Pak Relations: Confrontation to Conciliation . The Network Publications, 2004.

[39] Sultan, Adil. “Pakistan's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Impact of Drivers and Technology on Nuclear Doctrine,” Strategic Studies 31, no. 1 (Winter 2011). Aaccessed November 23, 2013. http://www.issi.org.pk/publication-files/1340000409_86108059.pdf.

[40] Vipin, Narang. “Five Myths about India's Nuclear Posture.” The Washington Quarterly 36, no. 3 (Summer 2013).

[41] Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control . “Pakistan Derives its First ‘Hatf’ Missiles from Foreign Space Rockets.” Accessed March 29, 2015. http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/pakistan/hatf.html.