OBJECTIVE - The objective of this paper is to describe a case study where Bayesian Networks (BNs) were used to construct an expert-based Web effort model. METHOD - We built a single-company BN model solely elicited from expert knowledge, where the domain expert was an experienced Web project manager from a small Web company in Auckland, New Zealand. This model was validated using data from eight past finished Web projects. RESULTS - The BN model has to date been successfully used to estimate effort for four Web projects, providing effort estimates superior to those based solely on expert opinion. CONCLUSIONS - Our results suggest that, at least for the Web Company that participated in this case study, the use of a model that allows the representation of uncertainty, inherent in effort estimation, can outperform expert-based estimates. Another five companies have also benefited from using Bayesian Networks, with very promising results.
Author and article information
Computer Science department
The University of Auckland
Private Bag, 92019, Auckland, NZ
The Fenner School of Environment and Society
The Australian National University