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Abstract

Uncertainty surrounding global change impacts on future forest conditions has motivated the development of silviculture strategies and frameworks focused on enhancing potential adaptation to changing climate and disturbance regimes. This includes applying current silvicultural practices, such as thinning and mixed-species and multicohort systems, and novel experimental approaches, including the deployment of future-adapted species and genotypes, to make forests more resilient to future changes. In this chapter, we summarize the general paradigms and approaches associated with adaptation silviculture along a gradient of strategies ranging from resistance to transition. We describe how these concepts have been operationalized and present potential landscape-scale frameworks for allocating different adaptation intensities as part of functionally complex networks in the face of climate change.

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Forest disturbances under climate change

Rupert Seidl, Dominik Thom, Markus Kautz … (2017)

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

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Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties.

John Wiens, Diana Stralberg, Dennis Jongsomjit … (2009)

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.