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      A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

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          Abstract

          Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies.

          Abstract

          Impacts from marine heatwaves can be devastating, but understanding their causes is largely based on case studies. Here the authors carry out a global assessment of literature and sea surface temperatures to identify important local processes, climate modes and teleconnections that drive marine heatwaves regionally.

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          A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

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            Marine heatwaves under global warming

            Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.
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              Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                neil.holbrook@utas.edu.au
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                14 June 2019
                14 June 2019
                2019
                : 10
                : 2624
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 826X, GRID grid.1009.8, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, , University of Tasmania, ; Hobart, 7001 Tasmania Australia
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 826X, GRID grid.1009.8, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, , University of Tasmania, ; Hobart, 7001 Tasmania Australia
                [3 ]ISNI 0000000122986657, GRID grid.34477.33, School of Oceanography, , University of Washington, ; Seattle, 98105 WA USA
                [4 ]ISNI 0000 0004 4902 0432, GRID grid.1005.4, Climate Change Research Centre, , The University of New South Wales, ; Sydney, 2052 Australia
                [5 ]ISNI 0000 0004 4902 0432, GRID grid.1005.4, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, , The University of New South Wales, ; Sydney, 2052 New South Wales Australia
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0328 1619, GRID grid.1046.3, Australian Institute of Marine Science, ; Townsville, 4810 Queensland Australia
                [7 ]CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, Crawley, 6009 Western Australia Australia
                [8 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8200, GRID grid.55602.34, Department of Oceanography, , Dalhousie University, ; Halifax, NS B3H 4R2 Canada
                [9 ]Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, Scotland PA37 1QA UK
                [10 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0387 1602, GRID grid.10097.3f, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, ; Barcelona, 08034 Spain
                [11 ]CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, 7000 Tasmania Australia
                [12 ]ISNI 0000000121682483, GRID grid.8186.7, Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, , Aberystwyth University, ; Aberystwyth, SY23 3DA UK
                [13 ]Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB UK
                [14 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7910, GRID grid.1012.2, UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences, , The University of Western Australia, ; Crawley, 6009 Western Australia Australia
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3523-6254
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6604-1695
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5226-871X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7615-6587
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2855-7092
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4006-2826
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4620-5899
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0608-7288
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3194-8326
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9889-2216
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4157-541X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2450-4978
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-9745
                Article
                10206
                10.1038/s41467-019-10206-z
                6570771
                31201309
                0770bda2-9e01-4337-b39d-e1671c66de67
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 8 June 2018
                : 15 April 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028) ARC DE140100952 ARC DE150100456 NERC IRF NE/K008439/1 ARC FT110100174 ARC DP170100023 NERC NE/J024082/1 ARC FS110200029 Marie Curie CIG PCIG10-GA-2011-303685 UWA Research Collaboration Award
                Categories
                Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Uncategorized
                climate sciences,physical oceanography
                Uncategorized
                climate sciences, physical oceanography

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