Responses of Quaternary rainforest vertebrates to climate change in Australia

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

A long-term climatic change 4.0 x 10(5) to 3.0 x 10(5) years ago is recorded in deep-sea sediments of the Angola and Canary basins in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. In the Angola Basin (Southern Hemisphere) the climatic signal shows a transition to more humid ("interglacial") conditions in equatorial Africa, and in the Canary Basin (Northern Hemisphere) to more "glacial" oceanic conditions. This trend is confirmed by comparison with all well-documented marine and continental records from various latitudes available; in the Northern Hemisphere, in the Atlantic north of 20 degrees N, climate merged into more "glacial" conditions and in equatorial regions and in the Southern Hemisphere to more "interglacial" conditions. The data point to a more northern position of early Brunhes oceanic fronts and to an intensified atmosphere and ocean surface circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during that time, probably accompanied by a more zonal circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. The mid-Brunhes climatic change may have been forced by the orbital eccentricity cycle of 4.13 x 10(5) years.