Detection and attribution studies generally examine individual climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Thus, we lack a strong understanding of climate change impacts on correlated climate extremes and compound events, which have become more common in recent years. Here we present a monthly‐scale compound warm and dry attribution study, examining CMIP6 climate models with and without the influence of anthropogenic forcing. We show that most regions have experienced large increases in concurrent warm and dry months in historical simulations with human emissions, while no coherent change has occurred in historical natural‐only simulations without human emissions. At the global scale, the likelihood of compound warm‐dry months has increased 2.7 times due to anthropogenic emissions. With this multivariate perspective, we highlight that anthropogenic emissions have not only impacted individual extremes but also compound extremes. Due to amplified risks from multivariate extremes, our results can provide important insights on the risks of associated climate impacts.
Most climate change studies tend to explore changes in individual climate variables such as temperature or precipitation. Due to this, we currently do not possess a strong understanding of the multiple changes that can occur simultaneously under human‐driven climate change. Here we present how the simultaneous occurrence of warm and dry months have increased significantly under modeled climate conditions with human emissions, especially relative to modeled climate conditions without human emissions. We highlight that at the global scale, the occurrence of simultaneously warm and dry months has increased 2.7 times under the presence of human emissions. Since the simultaneous occurrence of extreme climate conditions can produce devastating impacts, this study provides an important perspective on the large‐scale multivariate changes that have emerged as a result of human‐driven climate change.
Using CMIP6 model output, we attribute large increases in concurrent warm and dry months across the globe to anthropogenic activities
Due to anthropogenic forcing, the global likelihood of warm‐dry months has increased by 2.7 times in land areas between 60°N–60°S
Warm‐dry concurrences show largest increases in the tropics and subtropics (Central and South America, Africa, and East and Southeast Asia)