The future of planetary defense : Asteroids, Comets, and Earth

The all sky surveys done by the Palomar Observatory Schmidt, the European Southern Observatory Schmidt, and the United Kingdom Schmidt, the InfraRed Astronomical Satellite and the 2 Micron All Sky Survey have proven to be extremely useful tools for astronomy with value that lasts for decades. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer is mapping the whole sky following its launch on 14 December 2009. WISE began surveying the sky on 14 Jan 2010 and completed its first full coverage of the sky on July 17. The survey will continue to cover the sky a second time until the cryogen is exhausted (anticipated in November 2010). WISE is achieving 5 sigma point source sensitivities better than 0.08, 0.11, 1 and 6 mJy in unconfused regions on the ecliptic in bands centered at wavelengths of 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns. Sensitivity improves toward the ecliptic poles due to denser coverage and lower zodiacal background. The angular resolution is 6.1, 6.4, 6.5 and 12.0 arc-seconds at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns, and the astrometric precision for high SNR sources is better than 0.15 arc-seconds.

Asteroids with diameters smaller than approximately 50-100 m that collide with the Earth usually do not hit the ground as a single body; rather, they detonate in the atmosphere. These small objects can still cause considerable damage, such as occurred near Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908. The flux of small bodies is poorly constrained, however, in part because ground-based observational searches pursue strategies that lead them preferentially to find larger objects. A Tunguska-class event-the energy of which we take to be equivalent to 10 megatons of TNT-was previously estimated to occur every 200-300 years, with the largest annual airburst calculated to be approximately 20 kilotons (kton) TNT equivalent (ref. 4). Here we report satellite records of bolide detonations in the atmosphere over the past 8.5 years. We find that the flux of objects in the 1-10-m size range has the same power-law distribution as bodies with diameters >50 m. From this we estimate that the Earth is hit on average annually by an object with approximately 5 kton equivalent energy, and that Tunguska-like events occur about once every 1,000 years.