Epidemiological characteristics and trend analysis of influenza among students in Shenzhen, 2015-2021

Abstract

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and changing trends of influenza among students in Shenzhen, and to provide the basis for scientific prevention and control of influenza on campus.

Methods The incidence report data of influenza among students aged 6–19 years old in Shenzhen from 2015 to 2021 were collected, the basic situation was described, and the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of the incidence rate.

Results A total of 115 143 cases of influenza were reported. The incidence rate of influenza rose from 64.05/100 000 in 2015 to 211.94/100 000 in 2021, and the highest incidence rate in 2019. The incidence rate of the 6-<10 age group was the highest, and the incidence rate of economically developed areas was higher than that of economically less developed regions. Trend analysis showed that the inflection points of the annual incidence rate of influenza appeared in 2019, showing a rise and fall, and an overall trend of increase, with an annual increase of 37.2% (95% CI: 6.3%–77.2%, P<0.05). The incidence trend of different gender and different regions was consistent with the overall incidence trend. The monthly incidence rate increased first, then decreased, and then increased, and there was a turning point in December 2019 and May 2020. The three segment MPC was 10.39%, −66.60%, 10.04% and AMPC 2.60%. The average annual growth rate was the fastest in the 15–19 age group (AAPC=108.1%, 95% CI: 83.8%–135.5%, P<0.05).

Conclusions The reported incidence of students aged 6-19 in Shenzhen was generally on the rise, and the prevention and control of influenza on campus for primary and secondary school students should be strengthened. Institutions need to strengthen cooperation to reduce the occurrence of influenza and improve the ability to respond to influenza emergencies.

Abstract

摘要： 目的 分析深圳市学生流行性感冒流行特征及变化趋势, 为校园流感的科学防控提供依据。 方法 收集 2015—2021年深圳市6~19岁学生流行性感冒的发病报告数据, 描述基本流行病学特征, 使用Joinpoint回归模型进行发 病率变化趋势分析。 结果 2015—2021年深圳市共报告6~19岁学生流行性感冒病例115 143例。流感发病率由2015 年的64.05/10万升至2021年的211.94/10万, 以2019年的发病率最高。6~<10岁学龄段发病率最高, 经济发达地区的发 病率高于经济次发达地区。趋势分析显示, 流感年发病率变化的拐点出现在2019年, 呈现出先升后降, 总体呈上升趋 势, 年均上升37.2%(95% CI: 6.3%~77.2%, P<0.05)。不同性别和不同地区的发病趋势与总体发病趋势一致。月发病率 呈现先升后降再升总体上升的趋势, 在2019年12月和2020年5月存在转折点, 三段的MPC分别为10.39%、−66.60%和 10.04%, AMPC 为 2.60%。15~19 岁年龄段年均上升速度最快(AAPC=108.1%, 95% CI: 83.8%~135.5%, P<0.05)。 结论 深圳市6~19岁学生群体报告发病率总体呈上升趋势, 应重点加强对中小学生的校园流感防控工作。各机构需加强合 作,减少流感的发生,提升流感突发疫情的应对能力。