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      FAIL-T (AFP, AST, tumor sIze, ALT, and Tumor number): a model to predict intermediate-stage HCC patients who are not good candidates for TACE

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          Abstract

          Background

          Patients with un-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are a diverse group with varying overall survival (OS). Despite the availability of several scoring systems for predicting OS, one of the unsolved problems is identifying patients who might not benefit from TACE. We aim to develop and validate a model for identifying HCC patients who would survive <6 months after their first TACE.

          Methods

          Patients with un-resectable HCC, BCLC stage 0-B, who received TACE as their first and only treatment between 2007 and 2020 were included in this study. Before the first TACE, demographic data, laboratory data, and tumor characteristics were obtained. Eligible patients were randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to training and validation sets. The former was used for model development using stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and the model was validated in the latter set.

          Results

          A total of 317 patients were included in the study (210 for the training set and 107 for the validation set). The baseline characteristics of the two sets were comparable. The final model (FAIL-T) included A FP, AST, tumor s Ize, A LT, and Tumor number. The FAIL-T model yielded AUROCs of 0.855 and 0.806 for predicting 6-month mortality after TACE in the training and validation sets, respectively, while the “six-and-twelve” score showed AUROCs of 0.751 ( P < 0.001) in the training set and 0.729 ( P = 0.099) in the validation sets for the same purpose.

          Conclusion

          The final model is useful for predicting 6-month mortality in naive HCC patients undergoing TACE. HCC patients with high FAIL-T scores may not benefit from TACE, and other treatment options, if available, should be considered.

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          Most cited references44

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          EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines: Management of hepatocellular carcinoma

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            Hepatocellular carcinoma

            Liver cancer remains a global health challenge, with an estimated incidence of >1 million cases by 2025. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of liver cancer and accounts for ~90% of cases. Infection by hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus are the main risk factors for HCC development, although non-alcoholic steatohepatitis associated with metabolic syndrome or diabetes mellitus is becoming a more frequent risk factor in the West. Moreover, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-associated HCC has a unique molecular pathogenesis. Approximately 25% of all HCCs present with potentially actionable mutations, which are yet to be translated into the clinical practice. Diagnosis based upon non-invasive criteria is currently challenged by the need for molecular information that requires tissue or liquid biopsies. The current major advancements have impacted the management of patients with advanced HCC. Six systemic therapies have been approved based on phase III trials (atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, sorafenib, lenvatinib, regorafenib, cabozantinib and ramucirumab) and three additional therapies have obtained accelerated FDA approval owing to evidence of efficacy. New trials are exploring combination therapies, including checkpoint inhibitors and tyrosine kinase inhibitors or anti-VEGF therapies, or even combinations of two immunotherapy regimens. The outcomes of these trials are expected to change the landscape of HCC management at all evolutionary stages.
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              EASL 2017 Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatitis B virus infection.

              Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global public health problem with changing epidemiology due to several factors including vaccination policies and migration. This Clinical Practice Guideline presents updated recommendations for the optimal management of HBV infection. Chronic HBV infection can be classified into five phases: (I) HBeAg-positive chronic infection, (II) HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis, (III) HBeAg-negative chronic infection, (IV) HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis and (V) HBsAg-negative phase. All patients with chronic HBV infection are at increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), depending on host and viral factors. The main goal of therapy is to improve survival and quality of life by preventing disease progression, and consequently HCC development. The induction of long-term suppression of HBV replication represents the main endpoint of current treatment strategies, while HBsAg loss is an optimal endpoint. The typical indication for treatment requires HBV DNA >2,000IU/ml, elevated ALT and/or at least moderate histological lesions, while all cirrhotic patients with detectable HBV DNA should be treated. Additional indications include the prevention of mother to child transmission in pregnant women with high viremia and prevention of HBV reactivation in patients requiring immunosuppression or chemotherapy. The long-term administration of a potent nucleos(t)ide analogue with high barrier to resistance, i.e., entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil or tenofovir alafenamide, represents the treatment of choice. Pegylated interferon-alfa treatment can also be considered in mild to moderate chronic hepatitis B patients. Combination therapies are not generally recommended. All treated and untreated patients should be monitored for treatment response and adherence, and the risk of progression and development of complications. HCC remains the major concern for treated chronic hepatitis B patients. Several subgroups of patients with HBV infection require specific focus. Future treatment strategies to achieve 'cure' of disease and new biomarkers are discussed.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Med (Lausanne)
                Front Med (Lausanne)
                Front. Med.
                Frontiers in Medicine
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                2296-858X
                02 May 2023
                2023
                : 10
                : 1077842
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University , Songkhla, Thailand
                [2] 2Department of Medicine, Panyananthaphikkhu Chonprathan Medical Center, Srinakharinwirot University , Nonthaburi, Thailand
                [3] 3NKC Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Songklanagarind Hospital, Prince of Songkla University , Songkhla, Thailand
                Author notes

                Edited by: Liliana Chemello, University of Padua, Italy

                Reviewed by: Yiling Li, The First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University, China; Philip Vutien, University of Washington, United States

                *Correspondence: Pimsiri Sripongpun spimsiri@ 123456medicine.psu.ac.th

                †ORCID: Apichat Kaewdech orcid.org/0000-0002-4058-5977

                Pimsiri Sripongpun orcid.org/0000-0003-0007-8214

                Suraphon Assawasuwannakit orcid.org/0000-0003-0367-6746

                Panu Wetwittayakhlang orcid.org/0000-0002-5962-4112

                Naichaya Chamroonkul orcid.org/0000-0002-5753-7939

                Teerha Piratvisuth orcid.org/0000-0002-5249-9208

                Article
                10.3389/fmed.2023.1077842
                10185803
                37200967
                71d4bc7a-adb2-471a-9df3-31fe318ca260
                Copyright © 2023 Kaewdech, Sripongpun, Assawasuwannakit, Wetwittayakhlang, Jandee, Chamroonkul and Piratvisuth.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 23 October 2022
                : 30 March 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 4, Equations: 0, References: 45, Pages: 10, Words: 7240
                Funding
                Funded by: Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, doi 10.13039/501100010804;
                This study was funded by the Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla, Thailand.
                Categories
                Medicine
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                Gastroenterology

                hepatocellular carcinoma (hcc),prognostic score,survival,transarterial chemoembolization (tace),predictor,intermediate stage

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