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      In Anticipation of Extirpation

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      Environmental Humanities
      Duke University Press

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          Abstract

          As concern about sea level rise grows and optimal solutions are sought to address its causes and effects, little attention has been given to past analogs. This article argues that valuable insights into contemporary discussions about future sea level rise can be gained from understanding those of the past, specifically the ways in which coastal peoples and societies reacted during the period of postglacial sea level rise. For much of the Holocene, most continental people eschewed coastal living in favor of inland areas. In many places large coastal settlements appeared only after the development of polities and associated crosswater networks. Postglacial sea level rise affected coastal living in ways about which we remain largely ignorant. Yet, millennia-old stories from Australia and northwest Europe show how people responded, from which we can plausibly infer their motivations. Stories from Australia say the people have succeeded in halting sea level rise, whereas those from northwest Europe indicate that people have failed, leading to the drowning of coastal cities such as Ys (Brittany) and Cantre’r Gwaelod (Wales). This distinction is explained by the contrasting duration of postglacial sea level rise in these regions; around Australia, sea level stopped rising 7,000 years ago, while along many coasts of northwest Europe it has risen unceasingly since the last ice age ended. The nature of past human and societal responses to postglacial sea level rise holds important insights for the future.

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          Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change

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            Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

            Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.
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              Climate change: the next challenge for public mental health?

              Climate change is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to human health of the 21st century, with consequences that mental health professionals are also likely to face. While physical health impacts have been increasingly emphasized in literature and practice, recent scholarly literature indicates that climate change and related weather events and environmental changes can profoundly impact psychological well-being and mental health through both direct and indirect pathways, particularly among those with pre-existing vulnerabilities or those living in ecologically sensitive areas. Although knowledge is still limited about the connections between climate change and mental health, evidence is indicating that impacts may be felt at both the individual and community levels, with mental health outcomes ranging from psychological distress, depression and anxiety, to increased addictions and suicide rates. Drawing on examples from diverse geographical areas, this article highlights some climate-sensitive impacts that may be encountered by mental health professionals. We then suggest potential avenues for public mental health in light of current and projected changes, in order to stimulate thought, debate, and action.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Environmental Humanities
                Duke University Press
                2201-1919
                2201-1919
                May 01 2020
                May 01 2020
                : 12
                : 1
                : 113-131
                Affiliations
                [1 ]School of Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia
                Article
                10.1215/22011919-8142231
                754fbc3c-2eec-4135-979b-5d1176233fe3
                © 2020
                History

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