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      Prediction of recurrence of ischemic stroke within 1 year of discharge based on machine learning MRI radiomics

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          Abstract

          Purpose

          This study aimed to investigate the value of a machine learning-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics model in predicting the risk of recurrence within 1 year following an acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

          Methods

          The MRI and clinical data of 612 patients diagnosed with AIS at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from March 1, 2019, to March 5, 2021, were obtained. The patients were divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to whether they had a recurrent stroke within 1 year after discharge. Randomized splitting was used to divide the data into training and validation sets using a ratio of 7:3. Two radiologists used the 3D-slicer software to label the lesions on brain diffusion-weighted (DWI) MRI sequences. Radiomics features were extracted from the annotated images using the pyradiomics software package, and the features were filtered using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis. Four machine learning algorithms, logistic regression (LR), Support Vector Classification (SVC), LightGBM, and Random forest (RF), were used to construct a recurrence prediction model. For each algorithm, three models were constructed based on the MRI radiomics features, clinical features, and combined MRI radiomics and clinical features. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive efficacy of the models.

          Results

          Twenty features were selected from 1,037 radiomics features extracted from DWI images. The LightGBM model based on data with three different features achieved the best prediction accuracy from all 4 models in the validation set. The LightGBM model based solely on radiomics features achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.65, 0.671, and 0.647, respectively, and the model based on clinical data achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.7, 0.799, 0.735, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of the LightGBM model base on both radiomics and clinical features achieved the best performance with a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.85, 0.805, 0.789, respectively.

          Conclusion

          The ischemic stroke recurrence prediction model based on LightGBM achieved the best prediction of recurrence within 1 year following an AIS. The combination of MRI radiomics features and clinical data improved the prediction performance of the model.

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          Most cited references34

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          Guidelines for the Early Management of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke: 2019 Update to the 2018 Guidelines for the Early Management of Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Guideline for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

          Background and Purpose- The purpose of these guidelines is to provide an up-to-date comprehensive set of recommendations in a single document for clinicians caring for adult patients with acute arterial ischemic stroke. The intended audiences are prehospital care providers, physicians, allied health professionals, and hospital administrators. These guidelines supersede the 2013 Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) Guidelines and are an update of the 2018 AIS Guidelines. Methods- Members of the writing group were appointed by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee, representing various areas of medical expertise. Members were not allowed to participate in discussions or to vote on topics relevant to their relations with industry. An update of the 2013 AIS Guidelines was originally published in January 2018. This guideline was approved by the AHA Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee and the AHA Executive Committee. In April 2018, a revision to these guidelines, deleting some recommendations, was published online by the AHA. The writing group was asked review the original document and revise if appropriate. In June 2018, the writing group submitted a document with minor changes and with inclusion of important newly published randomized controlled trials with >100 participants and clinical outcomes at least 90 days after AIS. The document was sent to 14 peer reviewers. The writing group evaluated the peer reviewers' comments and revised when appropriate. The current final document was approved by all members of the writing group except when relationships with industry precluded members from voting and by the governing bodies of the AHA. These guidelines use the American College of Cardiology/AHA 2015 Class of Recommendations and Level of Evidence and the new AHA guidelines format. Results- These guidelines detail prehospital care, urgent and emergency evaluation and treatment with intravenous and intra-arterial therapies, and in-hospital management, including secondary prevention measures that are appropriately instituted within the first 2 weeks. The guidelines support the overarching concept of stroke systems of care in both the prehospital and hospital settings. Conclusions- These guidelines provide general recommendations based on the currently available evidence to guide clinicians caring for adult patients with acute arterial ischemic stroke. In many instances, however, only limited data exist demonstrating the urgent need for continued research on treatment of acute ischemic stroke.
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            Computational Radiomics System to Decode the Radiographic Phenotype

            Radiomics aims to quantify phenotypic characteristics on medical imaging through the use of automated algorithms. Radiomic artificial intelligence (AI) technology, either based on engineered hard-coded algorithms or deep learning methods, can be used to develop non-invasive imaging-based biomarkers. However, lack of standardized algorithm definitions and image processing severely hampers reproducibility and comparability of results. To address this issue, we developed PyRadiomics , a flexible open-source platform capable of extracting a large panel of engineered features from medical images. PyRadiomics is implemented in Python and can be used standalone or using 3D-Slicer. Here, we discuss the workflow and architecture of PyRadiomics and demonstrate its application in characterizing lung-lesions. Source code, documentation, and examples are publicly available at www.radiomics.io . With this platform, we aim to establish a reference standard for radiomic analyses, provide a tested and maintained resource, and to grow the community of radiomic developers addressing critical needs in cancer research.
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              GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND COUNTRY-SPECIFIC LIFETIME RISK OF STROKE, 1990–2016

              Background Lifetime stroke risk has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We determined lifetime risk of stroke globally and at the regional and country level. Methods Using Global Burden of Disease Study estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of non-stroke mortality, we estimated the cumulative lifetime risk of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) for 195 countries among adults over 25 years) for the years 1990 and 2016 and according to the GBD Study Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Results The global estimated lifetime risk of stroke from age 25 onward was 24.9% (95% UI: 23.5–26.2): 24.7% (23.3–26.0) in men and 25.1% (23.7–26.5) in women. The lifetime risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3% and of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. The risk of stroke was 23.5% in high SDI countries, 31.1% in high-middle SDI countries, and 13.2% in low SDI countries with UIs not overlapping for these categories. The greatest estimated risk of stroke was in East Asia (38.8%) and Central and Eastern Europe (31.7 and 31.6 %%), and lowest in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). From 1990 to 2016, there was a relative increase of 8.9% in global lifetime risk. Conclusions The global lifetime risk of stroke is approximately 25% starting at age 25 in both men and women. There is geographical variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with particularly high risk in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Neurosci
                Front Neurosci
                Front. Neurosci.
                Frontiers in Neuroscience
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1662-4548
                1662-453X
                04 May 2023
                2023
                : 17
                : 1110579
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Department of Medical Big Data Research Centre, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University , Nanchang, China
                [2] 2School of Public Health, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Nanchang University , Nanchang, China
                [3] 3Department of Neurology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University , Nanchang, China
                [4] 4Biological Resource Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University , Nanchang, China
                Author notes

                Edited by: Liming Hsu, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, United States

                Reviewed by: Christina Ledbetter, Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, United States; Di Dong, Institute of Automation (CAS), China

                *Correspondence: Yingping Yi, yyp66@ 123456126.com

                These authors have contributed equally to this work and share first authorship

                This article was submitted to Brain Imaging Methods, a section of the journal Frontiers in Neuroscience

                Article
                10.3389/fnins.2023.1110579
                10192708
                37214402
                7b4bc1ab-6f53-4142-8874-534851c8e9ee
                Copyright © 2023 Liu, Wu, Jia, Han, Chen, Li, Wu, Yin, Zhang, Chen, Yu, Luo, Tu, Zhou, Cheng and Yi.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 29 November 2022
                : 06 March 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 2, Equations: 0, References: 34, Pages: 9, Words: 5369
                Funding
                Funded by: National Key Research and Development Program of China, doi 10.13039/501100012166;
                Funded by: National Natural Science Foundation of China, doi 10.13039/501100001809;
                This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFC2002901 and 2018YFC1312902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81960609), the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University Funding Program (2021efyB03), the Postgraduate Student Innovation Special Fund Project of Jiangxi Province (YC2021-S199), and the Applied Research Cultivation Program of Jiangxi Province (20212BAG70029).
                Categories
                Neuroscience
                Original Research

                Neurosciences
                machine learning,radiomics,ischemic stroke,recurrence prediction,diffusion-weighted imaging

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