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      State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

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      1 , , 2 , 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 4 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 1 , 14 , 43 , 4 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 8 , 19 , 20 , 11 , 1 , 21 , 1 , 22 , 9 , 23 , 23 , 11 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 1 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 1 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 10 , 23 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 28 , 44 , 38 , 39 , 8 , 40 , 1 , 4 , 41 , 42 , 1
      Nature Communications
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          Abstract

          Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

          Abstract

          Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.

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          Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

          Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
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            Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

            Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
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              Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                schewe@pik-potsdam.de
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                1 March 2019
                1 March 2019
                2019
                : 10
                : 1005
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8868, GRID grid.4563.4, School of Geography, , University of Nottingham, ; Nottingham, NG7 2RD UK
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0369 6365, GRID grid.22069.3f, School of Geographic Sciences, , East China Normal University, ; Shanghai, 200241 China
                [4 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0584 9722, GRID grid.457340.1, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, ; 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
                [5 ]University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, 5735S. Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0805 7253, GRID grid.4861.b, Institut d’Astrophysique et de Géophysique/U.R. SPHERES, , Université de Liège, ; B-4000 LIEGE, Belgium
                [7 ]Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera 1, 41013 Sevilla, Spain
                [8 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8200, GRID grid.55602.34, Department of Biology, , Dalhousie University, ; Halifax, NS B3H 4R2 Canada
                [9 ]ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
                [10 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0791 5666, GRID grid.4818.5, Water Systems and Global Change group, , Wageningen University, ; PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [11 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1955 9478, GRID grid.75276.31, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ; Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
                [12 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2165 8627, GRID grid.8664.c, Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), , Justus Liebig University Giessen, ; Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390 Giessen, Germany
                [13 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2165 8627, GRID grid.8664.c, Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), , Justus Liebig University Giessen, ; Senckenbergstraße 3, 35392 Giessen, Germany
                [14 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8649, GRID grid.14709.3b, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, , McGill University, ; Montreal, H3A 0E8 Canada
                [15 ]Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM - CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003 Spain
                [16 ]GRID grid.433014.1, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), ; Müncheberg, 15374 Germany
                [17 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2248 7639, GRID grid.7468.d, IRI THEsys, , Humboldt University of Berlin, ; 10117 Berlin, Germany
                [18 ]Wageningen Environmental Research, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
                [19 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2288 9830, GRID grid.17091.3e, Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, , University of British Columbia, ; Vancouver, V6T 1Z4 BC Canada
                [20 ]ISNI 0000 0000 9075 106X, GRID grid.254567.7, Nereus Program, Institute for Marine & Coastal Sciences, School of the Earth, Ocean, and Environment, , University of South Carolina, ; Columbia, 29208 SC USA
                [21 ]ISNI 0000000121885934, GRID grid.5335.0, Department of Geography, , University of Cambridge, ; Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK
                [22 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2248 7639, GRID grid.7468.d, Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, ; 10099 Berlin, Germany
                [23 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0746 5933, GRID grid.140139.e, National Institute for Environmental Studies, ; 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan
                [24 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2151 536X, GRID grid.26999.3d, Institute of Industrial Science, , the University of Tokyo, ; Tokyo, 153-8505 Japan
                [25 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0637 9680, GRID grid.57828.30, Terrestrial Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, ; 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
                [26 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2113 8111, GRID grid.7445.2, Imperial College of London, Department of Life Science, ; Silwood Park Campus Buckhurst Rd, Berks, SL5 7PY UK
                [27 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9721, GRID grid.7839.5, Institute of Physical Geography, , Goethe-University Frankfurt, ; Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
                [28 ]Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany
                [29 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9377, GRID grid.10548.38, Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, , Stockholm University, ; SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
                [30 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0491 7318, GRID grid.419500.9, Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, ; D-07745 Jena, Germany
                [31 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2150 1785, GRID grid.17088.36, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, , Michigan State University, ; MI, 48824 USA
                [32 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7486, GRID grid.6572.6, School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, , University of Birmingham, ; Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
                [33 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7486, GRID grid.6572.6, Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, , University of Birmingham, ; Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
                [34 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2222 0432, GRID grid.416835.d, Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, , National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, ; 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604 Japan
                [35 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2298 5320, GRID grid.5173.0, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, ; Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
                [36 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0721 4552, GRID grid.450268.d, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, ; 20146 Hamburg, Germany
                [37 ]Ecopath International Initiative, Bellaterra, 08193 Spain
                [38 ]ISNI 0000000119573309, GRID grid.9227.e, Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, , Chinese Academy of Sciences, ; 100101 Beijing, China
                [39 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2297 8753, GRID grid.252546.2, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, , Auburn University, ; 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849 USA
                [40 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2171 2822, GRID grid.439150.a, UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, ; 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DP UK
                [41 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2256 9319, GRID grid.11135.37, Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, , Peking University, ; Beijing, 100871 China
                [42 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2308 1657, GRID grid.462844.8, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, , Université Pierre et Marie Curie, ; Paris, 75005 France
                [43 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2181 0211, GRID grid.38678.32, Present Address: Department of Mathematics, , Université du Québec à Montréal, ; Montreal, H2X 3Y7 Canada
                [44 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1941 7111, GRID grid.5802.f, Johannes Gutenberg-University, ; Anselm-Franz-von-Bentzel-Weg 12, 55128 Mainz, Germany
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9455-4159
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6258-1304
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2597-8422
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5544-9903
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9720-1076
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7343-9442
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6235-5868
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5517-6404
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2833-9407
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6214-6991
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-8621
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5092-7563
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1083-8416
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4843-4903
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-7015
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7878-8075
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7861-8789
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0886-6699
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1806-4091
                Article
                8745
                10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
                6397256
                30824763
                881584d7-6a29-4654-b742-2fe86d165ee2
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 9 January 2018
                : 28 January 2019
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