Changing epidemiology of chronic kidney disease as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2017: Estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2017

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Abstract

Aims/Introduction

Type 2 diabetes mellitus has been a leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Optimal healthcare planning requires an understanding of how the burden of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus has changed over time and geographic location, as well as the potential roles of sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors in these changes.

Materials and Methods

We used the Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2017 at the global, regional and national levels to investigate changes in the incidence, death and disability‐adjusted life years of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus, incorporating both epidemiological research and risk factor monitoring.

Results

The incident cases of CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus worldwide in 2017 had increased by 74% compared with 1990; total disability‐adjusted life years had increased by 113%, mainly attributable to population expansion and demographic transition. The Sociodemographic Index was significantly and negatively correlated with overall CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus burden. However, in 82 countries and territories, the burden was not alleviated in parallel with socioeconomic development.

Conclusions

CKD as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been the main contributor to the increasing burden of CKD over the past several decades. We suggest a more pragmatic approach focusing on early diagnosis, primary care and adequate follow up to reduce mortality and the long‐term burden in low‐to‐middle Sociodemographic Index regions. Interventions should address high systolic blood pressure, as well as overweight and obesity problems, especially in high‐income regions.

Abstract

On a global scale, a modest decrease in the age‐standardized incidence rate of chronic kidney disease as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been observed. Low‐ to middle‐income countries are suffering from a disproportionally higher burden of mortality rather than of morbidity compared with relatively more affluent counties. From 1990 to 2017, 82 of 195 countries failed to alleviate the burden of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in parallel with sociodemographic development. Meanwhile, there are potential opportunities for countries across the entire development spectrum. High body mass index is accounting for an increasingly greater proportion of the age‐standardized disability‐adjusted life years rate globally.

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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Spencer L James, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate … (2020)

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Gregory A Roth, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate … (2019)

Summary Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

Ashkan Afshin, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Marissa Reitsma … (2018)

Background While the rising pandemic of obesity has received significant attention in many countries, the effect of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remains uncertain. Methods We analyzed data from 67.8 million individuals to assess the trends in obesity and overweight prevalence among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body mass index (BMI), by age, sex, cause, and BMI level in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. Results In 2015, obesity affected 107.7 million (98.7-118.4) children and 603.7 million (588.2- 619.8) adults worldwide. Obesity prevalence has doubled since 1980 in more than 70 countries and continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries was greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million (2.7- 5.3) deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred among non-obese. More than two-thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden of high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated due to decreases in underlying cardiovascular disease death rates. Conclusions The rapid increase in prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Jun Lyu: lyujun2020@jnu.edu.cn

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Diabetes Investig

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Diabetes Investig

Journal ID (doi): 10.1111/(ISSN)2040-1124

Journal ID (publisher-id): JDI

Title: Journal of Diabetes Investigation

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )

ISSN (Print): 2040-1116

ISSN (Electronic): 2040-1124

Publication date (Electronic): 17 August 2020

Publication date (Print): March 2021

Volume: 12

Issue: 3 ( doiID: 10.1111/jdi.v12.3 )

Pages: 346-356

Affiliations

[ ¹ ] Department of Nephrology Kidney Hospital The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University Xi’an China

[ ² ] Department of Blood Purification Kidney Hospital the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University Xi’an China

[ ³ ] Department of Clinical Research The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University Guangzhou China

Author notes

[*] [* ] Correspondence

Jun Lyu

Tel.: +86‐139‐2227‐4169

Fax: +86-29-8525-2580

E‐mail address: lyujun2020@ 123456jnu.edu.cn

[†]

These authors contributed equally to this manuscript.

Author information

Huixian Li https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3713-8017

Article

Publisher ID: JDI13355

DOI: 10.1111/jdi.13355

PMC ID: 7926234

PubMed ID: 32654341

SO-VID: 96f83464-93dd-4a8d-8aa9-91c54c8fd7d9

License:

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

History

Date received : 11 April 2020

Date revision received : 16 June 2020

Date accepted : 02 July 2020

Page count

Figures: 7, Tables: 2, Pages: 11, Words: 6610

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cover-date March 2021

details-of-publishers-convertor Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.9.9 mode:remove_FC converted:03.03.2021

Keywords: chronic kidney disease,global burden of disease,type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Keywords: chronic kidney disease, global burden of disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Changing epidemiology of chronic kidney disease as a result of type 2 diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2017: Estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2017

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Most cited references 39

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

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