From green to gold: agricultural revolution for food security

Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.

Using isotopic screens, phylogenetic assessments, and 45 years of physiological data, it is now possible to identify most of the evolutionary lineages expressing the C(4) photosynthetic pathway. Here, 62 recognizable lineages of C(4) photosynthesis are listed. Thirty-six lineages (60%) occur in the eudicots. Monocots account for 26 lineages, with a minimum of 18 lineages being present in the grass family and six in the sedge family. Species exhibiting the C(3)-C(4) intermediate type of photosynthesis correspond to 21 lineages. Of these, 9 are not immediately associated with any C(4) lineage, indicating that they did not share common C(3)-C(4) ancestors with C(4) species and are instead an independent line. The geographic centre of origin for 47 of the lineages could be estimated. These centres tend to cluster in areas corresponding to what are now arid to semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, south-central South America, central Asia, northeastern and southern Africa, and inland Australia. With 62 independent lineages, C(4) photosynthesis has to be considered one of the most convergent of the complex evolutionary phenomena on planet Earth, and is thus an outstanding system to study the mechanisms of evolutionary adaptation.