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      Forecasting the incidence of tuberculosis in China using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          The aims of this study were to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and analyze the seasonality of infections in China; and to provide a useful tool for formulating intervention programs and allocating medical resources.

          Methods

          Data for the monthly incidence of TB from January 2004 to December 2015 were obtained from the National Scientific Data Sharing Platform for Population and Health (China). The Box–Jenkins method was applied to fit a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to forecast the incidence of TB over the subsequent six months.

          Results

          During the study period of 144 months, 12,321,559 TB cases were reported in China, with an average monthly incidence of 6.4426 per 100,000 of the population. The monthly incidence of TB showed a clear 12-month cycle, and a seasonality with two peaks occurring in January and March and a trough in December. The best-fit model was SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12, which demonstrated adequate information extraction (white noise test, p > 0.05). Based on the analysis, the incidence of TB from January to June 2016 were 6.6335, 4.7208, 5.8193, 5.5474, 5.2202 and 4.9156 per 100,000 of the population, respectively.

          Conclusions

          According to the seasonal pattern of TB incidence in China, the SARIMA model was proposed as a useful tool for monitoring epidemics.

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          Tuberculosis prevalence in China, 1990-2010; a longitudinal analysis of national survey data.

          Lixia Wang, Hui Zhang, Yunzhou Ruan … (2014)
          China scaled up a tuberculosis control programme (based on the directly observed treatment, short-course [DOTS] strategy) to cover half the population during the 1990s, and to the entire population after 2000. We assessed the effect of the programme. In this longitudinal analysis, we compared data from three national tuberculosis prevalence surveys done in 1990, 2000, and 2010. The 2010 survey screened 252,940 eligible individuals aged 15 years and older at 176 investigation points, chosen by stratified random sampling from all 31 mainland provinces. All individuals had chest radiographs taken. Those with abnormal radiographs, persistent cough, or both, were classified as having suspected tuberculosis. Tuberculosis was diagnosed by chest radiograph, sputum-smear microscopy, and culture. Trained staff interviewed each patient with tuberculosis. The 1990 and 2000 surveys were reanalysed and compared with the 2010 survey. From 1990 to 2010, the prevalence of smear-positive tuberculosis decreased from 170 cases (95% CI 166-174) to 59 cases (49-72) per 100,000 population. During the 1990s, smear-positive prevalence fell only in the provinces with the DOTS programme; after 2000, prevalence decreased in all provinces. The percentage reduction in smear-positive prevalence was greater for the decade after 2000 than the decade before (57% vs 19%; p<0.0001). 70% of the total reduction in smear-positive prevalence (78 of 111 cases per 100,000 population) occurred after 2000. Of these cases, 68 (87%) were in known cases-ie, cases diagnosed with tuberculosis before the survey. Of the known cases, the proportion treated by the public health system (using the DOTS strategy) increased from 59 (15%) of 370 cases in 2000 to 79 (66%) of 123 cases in 2010, contributing to reduced proportions of treatment default (from 163 [43%] of 370 cases to 35 [22%] of 123 cases) and retreatment cases (from 312 [84%] of 374 cases to 48 [31%] of 137 cases; both p<0.0001). In 20 years, China more than halved its tuberculosis prevalence. Marked improvement in tuberculosis treatment, driven by a major shift in treatment from hospitals to the public health centres (that implemented the DOTS strategy) was largely responsible for this epidemiological effect. Chinese Ministry of Health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            The effect of tuberculosis control in China.

            (2015)
            China has 1.4 million new cases of tuberculosis every year, more than any country except India. A new tuberculosis control project based on short-course chemotherapy was introduced in half the country in 1991, after a national survey of tuberculosis prevalence in 1990. Another survey was done in 2000 to re-evaluate the national tuberculosis burden, providing the opportunity to assess the effect of the control project. The survey in 2000 identified 375599 eligible individuals at 257 investigation points chosen from all 31 mainland provinces by stratified random sampling. Children (aged 0-14 years) were suspected of having tuberculosis if they had an induration of 10 mm or greater after a tuberculin skin test, and an abnormal fluorograph. Adults were suspected if they had a persistent cough, abnormal fluorograph, or both. Tuberculosis was diagnosed by chest radiograph, sputum-smear microscopy, and culture. 365097 people were examined (97% of those eligible). Prevalences of pulmonary, culture-positive, and smear-positive tuberculosis in 2000 were 367 (95% CI 340-397), 160 (144-177), and 122 (110-137) per 100000 population, respectively. Between 1990 and 2000, prevalences of these three forms of the disease had fallen, respectively, by 32% (5-68), 37% (7-66), and 32% (9-51) more in areas in which the project was implemented than in non-project areas. For culture-positive disease, a 30% (9-48) reduction was directly attributable to the project. Between 1991 and 2000, prevalence of tuberculosis was reduced significantly in areas of China by use of short-course chemotherapy following WHO guidelines. We estimate that in 2000, in a population of more than half a billion, there were 382000 fewer prevalent culture-positive cases and 280000 fewer prevalent smear-positive cases than there would otherwise have been.
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              Dynamic linear model and SARIMA: a comparison of their forecasting performance in epidemiology.

              Flávio Nobre, Guilherme P Telles, Baye G. Williamson … (2001)
              One goal of a public health surveillance system is to provide a reliable forecast of epidemiological time series. This paper describes a study that used data collected through a national public health surveillance system in the United States to evaluate and compare the performances of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and a dynamic linear model (DLM) for estimating case occurrence of two notifiable diseases. The comparison uses reported cases of malaria and hepatitis A from January 1980 to June 1995 for the United States. The residuals for both predictor models show that they were adequate tools for use in epidemiological surveillance. Qualitative aspects were considered for both models to improve the comparison of their usefulness in public health. Our comparison found that the two forecasting modelling techniques (SARIMA and DLM) are comparable when long historical data are available (at least 52 reporting periods). However, the DLM approach has some advantages, such as being more easily applied to different types of time series and not requiring a new cycle of identification and modelling when new data become available. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
              Article 0 comments Cited 63 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Qiang Mao
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Infect Public Health
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Infect Public Health
                Title: Journal of Infection and Public Health
                Publisher: Elsevier
                ISSN (Print): 1876-0341
                ISSN (Electronic): 1876-035X
                Publication date PMC-release: 3 May 2018
                Publication date (Print): Sep-Oct 2018
                Publication date (Electronic): 3 May 2018
                Volume: 11
                Issue: 5
                Pages: 707-712
                Affiliations
                [a ]Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Hygiene, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China
                [b ]Institute of Social Medical and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, PR China
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author at: No. 199, Donggang Road (West), Chengguan District, Lanzhou 730000, PR China. xingzhebutui@ 123456163.com
                Article
                Publisher ID: S1876-0341(18)30045-5
                DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2018.04.009
                PMC ID: 7102794
                PubMed ID: 29730253
                SO-VID: a5477de1-9aae-4e13-bd1a-a706dc75c447
                Copyright © © 2018 The Authors
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 2 September 2017
                Date revision received : 23 March 2018
                Date accepted : 8 April 2018
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: tuberculosis,forecasting,sarima,china
                Data availability:
                Keywords: tuberculosis, forecasting, sarima, china

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