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      Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          To develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS).

          Design

          A retrospective cohort study.

          Setting

          Two secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China.

          Participants

          Inclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ≥18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with any of the following were excluded from the study: preterm labour (gestational age <37 weeks), two or more CSs, contradictions for vaginal birth, history of other uterine incision such as myomectomy, and incomplete medical records.

          Primary outcome measure

          The primary outcome was VBAC, which was retrospectively abstracted from computerised medical records by clinical staff.

          Results

          Of the women who planned for TOLAC, 84.0% (1686/2006) had VBAC. Gestational age, history of vaginal delivery, estimated birth weight, body mass index, spontaneous onset of labour, cervix Bishop score and rupture of membranes were independently associated with VBAC. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) in the training cohort. The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.79).

          Conclusions

          TOLAC may be a potential strategy for decreasing the CS rate in China. The validated nomogram to predict success of VBAC could be a potential tool for VBAC counselling.

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          Most cited references20

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          Maternal and neonatal individual risks and benefits associated with caesarean delivery: multicentre prospective study.

          To assess the risks and benefits associated with caesarean delivery compared with vaginal delivery. Prospective cohort study within the 2005 WHO global survey on maternal and perinatal health. 410 health facilities in 24 areas in eight randomly selected Latin American countries; 123 were randomly selected and 120 participated and provided data 106,546 deliveries reported during the three month study period, with data available for 97,095 (91% coverage). Maternal, fetal, and neonatal morbidity and mortality associated with intrapartum or elective caesarean delivery, adjusted for clinical, demographic, pregnancy, and institutional characteristics. Women undergoing caesarean delivery had an increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with women undergoing vaginal delivery (odds ratio 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.6 to 2.5) for intrapartum caesarean and 2.3 (1.7 to 3.1) for elective caesarean). The risk of antibiotic treatment after delivery for women having either type of caesarean was five times that of women having vaginal deliveries. With cephalic presentation, there was a trend towards a reduced odds ratio for fetal death with elective caesarean, after adjustment for possible confounding variables and gestational age (0.7, 0.4 to 1.0). With breech presentation, caesarean delivery had a large protective effect for fetal death. With cephalic presentation, however, independent of possible confounding variables and gestational age, intrapartum and elective caesarean increased the risk for a stay of seven or more days in neonatal intensive care (2.1 (1.8 to 2.6) and 1.9 (1.6 to 2.3), respectively) and the risk of neonatal mortality up to hospital discharge (1.7 (1.3 to 2.2) and 1.9 (1.5 to 2.6), respectively), which remained higher even after exclusion of all caesarean deliveries for fetal distress. Such increased risk was not seen for breech presentation. Lack of labour was a risk factor for a stay of seven or more days in neonatal intensive care and neonatal mortality up to hospital discharge for babies delivered by elective caesarean delivery, but rupturing of membranes may be protective. Caesarean delivery independently reduces overall risk in breech presentations and risk of intrapartum fetal death in cephalic presentations but increases the risk of severe maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in cephalic presentations.
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            The World Health Organization Fetal Growth Charts: A Multinational Longitudinal Study of Ultrasound Biometric Measurements and Estimated Fetal Weight

            Background Perinatal mortality and morbidity continue to be major global health challenges strongly associated with prematurity and reduced fetal growth, an issue of further interest given the mounting evidence that fetal growth in general is linked to degrees of risk of common noncommunicable diseases in adulthood. Against this background, WHO made it a high priority to provide the present fetal growth charts for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and common ultrasound biometric measurements intended for worldwide use. Methods and Findings We conducted a multinational prospective observational longitudinal study of fetal growth in low-risk singleton pregnancies of women of high or middle socioeconomic status and without known environmental constraints on fetal growth. Centers in ten countries (Argentina, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Norway, and Thailand) recruited participants who had reliable information on last menstrual period and gestational age confirmed by crown–rump length measured at 8–13 wk of gestation. Participants had anthropometric and nutritional assessments and seven scheduled ultrasound examinations during pregnancy. Fifty-two participants withdrew consent, and 1,387 participated in the study. At study entry, median maternal age was 28 y (interquartile range [IQR] 25–31), median height was 162 cm (IQR 157–168), median weight was 61 kg (IQR 55–68), 58% of the women were nulliparous, and median daily caloric intake was 1,840 cal (IQR 1,487–2,222). The median pregnancy duration was 39 wk (IQR 38–40) although there were significant differences between countries, the largest difference being 12 d (95% CI 8–16). The median birthweight was 3,300 g (IQR 2,980–3,615). There were differences in birthweight between countries, e.g., India had significantly smaller neonates than the other countries, even after adjusting for gestational age. Thirty-one women had a miscarriage, and three fetuses had intrauterine death. The 8,203 sets of ultrasound measurements were scrutinized for outliers and leverage points, and those measurements taken at 14 to 40 wk were selected for analysis. A total of 7,924 sets of ultrasound measurements were analyzed by quantile regression to establish longitudinal reference intervals for fetal head circumference, biparietal diameter, humerus length, abdominal circumference, femur length and its ratio with head circumference and with biparietal diameter, and EFW. There was asymmetric distribution of growth of EFW: a slightly wider distribution among the lower percentiles during early weeks shifted to a notably expanded distribution of the higher percentiles in late pregnancy. Male fetuses were larger than female fetuses as measured by EFW, but the disparity was smaller in the lower quantiles of the distribution (3.5%) and larger in the upper quantiles (4.5%). Maternal age and maternal height were associated with a positive effect on EFW, particularly in the lower tail of the distribution, of the order of 2% to 3% for each additional 10 y of age of the mother and 1% to 2% for each additional 10 cm of height. Maternal weight was associated with a small positive effect on EFW, especially in the higher tail of the distribution, of the order of 1.0% to 1.5% for each additional 10 kg of bodyweight of the mother. Parous women had heavier fetuses than nulliparous women, with the disparity being greater in the lower quantiles of the distribution, of the order of 1% to 1.5%, and diminishing in the upper quantiles. There were also significant differences in growth of EFW between countries. In spite of the multinational nature of the study, sample size is a limiting factor for generalization of the charts. Conclusions This study provides WHO fetal growth charts for EFW and common ultrasound biometric measurements, and shows variation between different parts of the world.
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              Impact of multiple cesarean deliveries on maternal morbidity: a systematic review.

              The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of increasing numbers of cesarean deliveries on maternal morbidity. This study was performed for the 2010 National Institutes of Health Consensus Development Conference on Vaginal Birth After Cesarean: New Insights.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2019
                24 May 2019
                : 9
                : 5
                : e027807
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Shenzhen Longhua District Central Hospital , Shenzhen, P.R. China
                [2 ] Dongguan Tangxia Hospital , Dongguan, P.R. China
                [3 ] departmentProject development and management , Peking University Clinical Research Institute , Beijing, P.R. China
                [4 ] Independent Consultant , New York City, New York, USA
                [5 ] departmentNational Center for AIDS/STD Prevention and Control , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing, P.R. China
                [6 ] Dongguan People’s Hospital , Dongguan, P.R. China
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Yan-Jie Ji; 13412708696@ 123456163.com
                Article
                bmjopen-2018-027807
                10.1136/bmjopen-2018-027807
                6538023
                31129593
                ab23c727-a7e8-4c75-b87d-07a6551fc349
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 08 November 2018
                : 30 March 2019
                : 01 April 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: science and technology planning project of Guangdong Province in 2017;
                Funded by: society technology development project of Dongguan City in 2016;
                Categories
                Obstetrics and Gynaecology
                Research
                1506
                1609
                Custom metadata
                unlocked

                Medicine
                trial of labour after cesarean delivery,cesarean section,vaginal birth after cesarean section,prediction model,china

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